Euromonitor International predicts that the global economy will slow in 2019 with annual growth of 3.6% in real terms. We offer key insights from economy, finance and trade; cities; business dynamics; industrial; and natural resources perspectives. For example, Mumbai will remain the most densely populated city in the world in 2019; five of the 10 easiest countries to do business in will be in Europe; and there will be a focus on technologies that go beyond achieving carbon-neutral emissions.
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Low interest rates and high private confidence will continue supporting global growth. However, rising trade war uncertainty and slowing global trade pose major risks to the outlook.
The effects of US fiscal stimulus are forecast to start fading, while trade tensions have escalated. Private sector confidence has declined in the eurozone and the block is forecast to continue losing growth momentum. Slow productivity in advanced economies also hinders growth potential.
China will continue on a slowdown path; however, it appears to be consistent with a soft landing. Emerging market vulnerability has increased.
Emerging economies are estimated to account for 77.0% of global real GDP growth in 2019.