Euromonitor International predicts the global economy to grow at 4.6% in 2022, but continuing to face pandemic-related risks including the ongoing supply constraints and new coronavirus variants. The pharmaceutical sector is expected to see the strongest growth, while a recovery of the automobile industry should boost the transport sector and a wider 5G roll-out will push smart cities projects. Business will increasingly adapt hybrid work models and focus more on climate action.
This report comes in PPT.
The global economic recovery momentum has weakened since mid-2021, due to the resurgence in COVID-19 infections from the Delta variant in many countries and worsening supply bottlenecks. For the year ahead, 2022, global economic growth is expected to expand by 4.6%, thanks to continued medical improvements and a consumption boost from pent-up demand. Strong goods demand should result in a pick-up in production once supply chain problems start to ease.
For developed economies, growth of 4.1% in 2022 is forecast, while the outlook continues to depend on the containment of COVID-19 infection waves, the emergence of new variants, and easing of supply constraints. Among emerging and developing markets, China’s real GDP growth will moderate to 5.5% due to ongoing tight COVID-19 restrictions and problems in the real estate sector. India’s real GDP growth will remain relatively strong at 7.9% in 2022, thanks to faster vaccination, higher government spending and increased consumption.
The COVID-19 pandemic will still represent a major risk to global economic growth in 2022. As of the end of 2021, insufficient vaccination in both advanced and developing economies and new infection waves, coupled with the emergence of a new coronavirus variant, Omicron, have required a tightening of social distancing restrictions in many economies and posed a threat to global economic recovery. Under our pessimistic scenario (C19 Pessimistic1), global real GDP growth will stagnate in 2022 and return to growth only in 2023.
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