Emerging Markets’ Middle Class Consumers in the Coronavirus Era

July 2020

This report provides insights into how the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic impacts the middle class in emerging and developing countries. It will also deep dive into China, home to nearly half of the developing world’s middle class, to uncover the changes in middle class consumers’ behaviour, values and priorities as a result of the pandemic.

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This report comes in PPT.

In Summary: Impacts Of COVID-19 on The Middle Class

Income and Wealth

In the face of contracting economic activity and higher unemployment, middle class income and wealth are likely to decline.

The middle class in emerging and developing Asia, where the savings ratio is high, thus giving them a financial cushion, is expected to be more resilient to the economic fallout of the pandemic.

Middle class households in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, generally with fewer savings and assets, will be at greater risk of falling into poverty.

Consumption

More likely than lower-income groups, middle class households can afford to stockpile food and essential goods. However, rising food prices due to the COVID-19 pandemic will seriously dent middle class discretionary spending.

Transport, hotels and catering, and leisure and recreation will be the categories where middle class consumers will cut back the most, due to their reduced discretionary spending capacity and the fact that consumers do not feel safe about eating out, going on holiday, and travelling.

Shifts in Values and Habits

Economic uncertainty, job insecurity, and anxieties wrought by COVID-19 will cause middle class consumers to reassess their values and priorities as well as embrace new consumption habits.

Middle class consumers will be more likely than ever before to embrace the second-hand economy as they shift away from the accumulation of material goods. Lower disposable incomes amid an economic recession will also necessitate the need to resell their used goods for extra income.

COVID-19 to hit emerging and developing economies hard
New members of the middle class risk falling back into poverty
Middle class to cut back all discretionary spending
Spotlight on China: middle class tightens their purse strings…
… and look for ways to simplify their lives
Alibaba: capitalising on China’s booming second-hand market
In summary: impacts of COVID-19 on the middle class
Definitions of the three scenarios of a more severe outbreak
Scope and analytics tools
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