Flows in Bulgaria

TRENDS

Inbound arrivals increased by 13% in 2017, to reach 9.1 million. This growth reflects the simultaneous impact of two distinct factors – eased access to Bulgaria and instability in key markets for European tourists. Waves of terrorist attacks in 2015 and 2016 in Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey targeting foreign visitors specifically prompted European tourists to assume a very cautious approach when choosing holiday destinations. Both in 2016 and in 2017, a greater number of Europeans opted for the relative safety of the Old Continent and the European Union. Being a member of the EU, and offering ample opportunities for summer and winter tourism, Bulgaria benefited directly from this trend. The impact, however, was further augmented by the fact that simultaneous to these events, low-cost carriers significantly increased the routes they operated to and from the country. In particular, in late 2016 Ryanair increased its routes to Bulgaria from one to 23, whilst at the start of 2017 Wizz Air increased its routes to 43, from 33 the year before. As a result, not only did Bulgaria become much more visible on the radar of European tourists, but the cost of travel to the country dropped considerably.

PROSPECTS

Arrivals to Bulgaria are expected to increase by a CAGR of 4% over the forecast period, to reach 10.9 million in 2022. Bulgarian summer tourism is mainly focused on budget tourists from northern European countries such as Germany, Poland, the UK, Russia and Ukraine. A key growth driver over the forecast period will be improved access to Bulgaria from such countries, thanks to the expanding number of routes to and from the country operated by low-cost airlines. At present, Bulgaria has a competitive advantage versus rivals such as Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt, which also tend to attract similar tourists from the same markets. This advantage stems from Bulgaria’s EU membership and internal security, at a time when European tourists have security at the top of their list of concerns. As a result, security issues are a major threat to the future performance. It is important to note that there is a precedent in this respect. In 2012, the airport at Burgas was the scene of a terrorist attack targeting Israeli tourists, leaving seven people dead and 35 wounded.

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