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Strategy Briefing

From the Outside Looking in - Chinese Tissue and Oversupply

Feb 2014

US$1,325

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About This Report

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While the Chinese market for tissue is booming and per capita consumption increases rank among the highest in the world there remain structural problems. Following a period of unprecedented capacity increases, the industry has rapidly modernised which belies the underdeveloped distribution system found outside 1st and 2nd-tier cities. The arrival of SCA through its purchase of Vinda and a dearth of small-scale producers make for an unusual and potentially hazardous competitive environment.

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Overview

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Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.

Global market

The global market for tissue continues to develop apace and is testament to manufacturers’ ability to produce a range of products at affordable prices in the developing world as well as consumers in the developed world continuing to see tissue as an essential element of the typical shopping basket.

China

China has risen to become the largest single market globally, overtaking the position previously occupied by the US. The rapid growth of tissue in China marks the coming together of a range of key drivers that have caused the market to boom in recent years.

Per capita

Per capita consumption in China still remains a fraction of the levels reported in the West and even Japan, meaning that further volume growth is likely over the long term, a fact that has encouraged considerable investment in new production capacity.

Drivers

Key drivers of tissue sales including disposable income and population growth have been supplemented by a combination of urbanisation, hygiene awareness as well as brand activity to maintain double-digit volume growth.

Oversupply

While long-term positive volume forecasts are a boon, the extent to which new capacity has been (and will be) added to the Chinese market is a concern; production volumes far exceeding demand increases will likely push the industry’s utilisation rate down so far as to compromise profitability among smaller players.

Medium-term threat

Clearly the industry is looking to both modernise and rationalise, but the pace of this development would appear to be too rapid for the market to absorb, thus producing market conditions that will see rampant competition and ultimately falling unit prices that are likely to hurt tissue specialists.

What this report includes

Top-level strategic analysis of how major consumer trends will influence global markets
Consumer insight
Impact across all relevant consumer markets
Unique graphics and case studies
Key market snapshots
Accompanying presentation to synthesise main findings

Why buy this report

Identify factors driving change now and in the future
Understand motivation
Forward-looking outlook
Briefings and presentation should provoke lively discussion at senior level
Take a step back from micro trends
Get up to date estimates and comment

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Introduction

Scope

Key findings

Oversupply or lack of demand?

World Market E volution

A good place to be

World Market Evolution

Tipping point achieved

Tissue per capita consumption by region 2013

The tissue panacea

China The Key Global Market

Global power in fmcg

2012 an auspicious year

China’s world tissue contribution

Per c apita retail volume growth in tissue over 2008-2013

Latent opportunities

Key Tissue Drivers

Key tissue volume growth drivers

China socioeconomic drivers

Consumer drivers

Market drivers

Opportunities and Capacity

Consumption in practical terms

Japan a more natural comparison?

Observations and Oversupply

Top four capacity

Retirements

Market set for vast capacity increases

Welcome to China

Capacity does not translate into share

Utilisation rate to plummet

Short sharp shock

Future foundations

Oversupply and Value

A warning from the solar industry

Tissue not alone in overcapacity , so why the high profile ?

New entrants (1)

New entrants (2)

Tissue margins squeezed

Tissue and margins

Tissue manufacturers expand

Just over the horizon

Tissue and pricing

Risking commodity status?

Smaller operators in the majority…

…and slow to shift

Relative comparisons: China vs Japan

Rapid growth phase

Summary

Bigger is better

Competitive polarisation

A focus for part two

Report Definitions

Definitions (1)

Definitions (2)

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

From the Outside Looking in - Chinese Tissue and Oversupply

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Global market

China

Per capita

Drivers

Oversupply

Medium-term threat

What this report includes

Why buy this report

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Introduction

Scope

Key findings

Oversupply or lack of demand?

World Market E volution

A good place to be

World Market Evolution

Tipping point achieved

Tissue per capita consumption by region 2013

The tissue panacea

China The Key Global Market

Global power in fmcg

2012 an auspicious year

China’s world tissue contribution

Per c apita retail volume growth in tissue over 2008-2013

Latent opportunities

Key Tissue Drivers

Key tissue volume growth drivers

China socioeconomic drivers

Consumer drivers

Market drivers

Opportunities and Capacity

Consumption in practical terms

Japan a more natural comparison?

Observations and Oversupply

Top four capacity

Retirements

Market set for vast capacity increases

Welcome to China

Capacity does not translate into share

Utilisation rate to plummet

Short sharp shock

Future foundations

Oversupply and Value

A warning from the solar industry

Tissue not alone in overcapacity , so why the high profile ?

New entrants (1)

New entrants (2)

Tissue margins squeezed

Tissue and margins

Tissue manufacturers expand

Just over the horizon

Tissue and pricing

Risking commodity status?

Smaller operators in the majority…

…and slow to shift

Relative comparisons: China vs Japan

Rapid growth phase

Summary

Bigger is better

Competitive polarisation

A focus for part two

Report Definitions

Definitions (1)

Definitions (2)

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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