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Global Economic Forecasts: Q1 2017

February 2017

Despite the risk of stronger trade and immigration restrictions and greater policy uncertainty after Donald Trump took the Presidential office, the reaction of financial markets has been more optimistic than expected. In this context, we have revised the world GDP growth forecast up to 3.3% in 2017 and 3.4% in 2018. However, the global economy remains vulnerable to Trump potentially changing the rules of the game at a time when it is already fragile.

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Global Economy

Despite the risk of stronger trade and immigration restrictions and greater policy uncertainty after Donald Trump took the Presidential office, the reaction of financial markets has been more optimistic than expected. In this context, we have revised the world GDP growth forecast up to 3.3% in 2017 and 3.4% in 2018. However, the global economy remains vulnerable to Trump potentially changing the rules of the game at a time when it is already fragile.

Europe has witnessed the growing strength of populist anti-EU parties, especially in France and Italy

This increases risks of possible EU exits and negative shocks to financial markets and private sector confidence.

China is confronting excessive credit growth and a difficult economic rebalancing process

Meanwhile, Russia and Brazil are struggling to grow due to a lack of tangible stimulus for domestic demand, and ongoing structural problems. Along with deteriorating international trade environment and deceleration in capital inflows, this extends the risk of a major slowdown across emerging economies.

The two main global risk scenarios remain an Advanced Economies stagnation and an Emerging Markets slowdown

Each of these scenarios would cause a decrease in the global real GDP growth to around 2.5% in 2017 and to 1.8% in 2018.

overview

Global Economy
Executive Summary
GDP Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter
Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter
Interest Rate Forecast
Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Consumer Spending , Confidence and Labour Markets
Wages and Disposable Income
Business Investment, Sentiment and the Stock Market
Interest Rates and Inflation

The Eurozone

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Consumer Confidence and Spending
Business Conditions and Investment
Financial Markets and Monetary Policy

The UK

GDP Components and Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Income and Consumption
Exchange Rate and Inflation

Japan

GDP and Inflation
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Foreign Trade
Labour Market

China

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Output and Economic Activity
Financial Markets and Private Sector Sentiment

Russia

GDP Growth and Production
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
GDP Components
Income and Inflation

Brazil

GDP, Inflation and Interest Rate
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Pension Reform and Foreign Trade

India

GDP and Components
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Inflation and Monetary Policy
Investment and Business Environment

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios
Scenario Descriptions
Scenario News

notes

Scope and Objectives
Definitions
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