GDP growth in advanced economies is expected to moderate and to stay close to 2.1% annually in 2018-2019, as a result of normalising monetary policies by central banks and more stable investment growth
Growth in emerging economies, on the other hand, is estimated to accelerate to 5.2% annually in 2018-2019 due to continuing recovery in commodity exporters. Emerging countries will account for around 76% of global growth.
However, for many major economies the economic recovery cycle may come to an end in 2019, restrained by slow productivity growth, lack of labour force, rising inflation and higher interest rates, as well as elevated debt levels
Geopolitical tensions, protectionism and crumbling international trade agreements pose additional risks to the growth trajectory of the world’s major economies, with a possibility of negative spill-overs across the regions and globally.
Overview
Global Economy
Executive Summary
Real GDP Growth Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter
Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter
Interest Rate Forecast
Major Forecast Revisions
The US
General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Aggregate Demand
Private Sector Sentiment and Labour Markets
Financial Markets
The Eurozone
General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Aggregate Demand
Private Sector Sentiment and Labour Markets
Financial Markets
The UK
GDP and General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Confidence and Retail Sales
Inflation and Monetary Policy
Japan
Economic Activity and Inflation
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Labour Market and Retail Sales
China
General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Output and Economic Activity
Private Sector Sentiment and Financial Conditions
Russia
Economic Recovery and GDP Growth
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Economic Activity Indicators
Inflation and Income
Brazil
Economic Activity and Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Political Uncertainty and Business Conditions
Inflation and Monetary Policy
India
GDP and Components
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Industrial Production and External Sector
Inflation and Monetary Policy
Risk Scenarios
Global Risk Scenarios
Scenario Descriptions
Scenario News
Notes
Scope and Objectives
Definitions