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Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q1 2018

Feb 2018

US$1,325

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About This Report

New Report Guarantee

If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE!

The global economy gained speed in Q3 2017 and expanded by 3.9% year on year. The growth momentum that many economies experienced in 2017 is forecast to carry on to 2018. This is due to continuing improvement in consumer and business sentiment, recovery in international trade, supportive global monetary policy stance and reviving investments. We forecast global GDP to increase by 3.8% annually in 2018-2019.

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Overview

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GDP growth in advanced economies is expected to moderate and to stay close to 2.1% annually in 2018-2019, as a result of normalising monetary policies by central banks and more stable investment growth

Growth in emerging economies, on the other hand, is estimated to accelerate to 5.2% annually in 2018-2019 due to continuing recovery in commodity exporters. Emerging countries will account for around 76% of global growth.

However, for many major economies the economic recovery cycle may come to an end in 2019, restrained by slow productivity growth, lack of labour force, rising inflation and higher interest rates, as well as elevated debt levels

Geopolitical tensions, protectionism and crumbling international trade agreements pose additional risks to the growth trajectory of the world’s major economies, with a possibility of negative spill-overs across the regions and globally.

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Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

Real GDP Growth Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Aggregate Demand

Private Sector Sentiment and Labour Markets

Financial Markets

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Aggregate Demand

Private Sector Sentiment and Labour Markets

Financial Markets

The UK

GDP and General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Confidence and Retail Sales

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

Economic Activity and Inflation

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Labour Market and Retail Sales

China

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Output and Economic Activity

Private Sector Sentiment and Financial Conditions

Russia

Economic Recovery and GDP Growth

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Economic Activity Indicators

Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity and Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Political Uncertainty and Business Conditions

Inflation and Monetary Policy

India

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Industrial Production and External Sector

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q1 2018

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

GDP growth in advanced economies is expected to moderate and to stay close to 2.1% annually in 2018-2019, as a result of normalising monetary policies by central banks and more stable investment growth

However, for many major economies the economic recovery cycle may come to an end in 2019, restrained by slow productivity growth, lack of labour force, rising inflation and higher interest rates, as well as elevated debt levels

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Table of Contents

Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

Real GDP Growth Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Aggregate Demand

Private Sector Sentiment and Labour Markets

Financial Markets

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Aggregate Demand

Private Sector Sentiment and Labour Markets

Financial Markets

The UK

GDP and General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Confidence and Retail Sales

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

Economic Activity and Inflation

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Labour Market and Retail Sales

China

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Output and Economic Activity

Private Sector Sentiment and Financial Conditions

Russia

Economic Recovery and GDP Growth

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Economic Activity Indicators

Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity and Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Political Uncertainty and Business Conditions

Inflation and Monetary Policy

India

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Industrial Production and External Sector

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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