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Global Economic Forecasts: Q1 2018

February 2018

The global economy gained speed in Q3 2017 and expanded by 3.9% year on year. The growth momentum that many economies experienced in 2017 is forecast to carry on to 2018. This is due to continuing improvement in consumer and business sentiment, recovery in international trade, supportive global monetary policy stance and reviving investments. We forecast global GDP to increase by 3.8% annually in 2018-2019.

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GDP growth in advanced economies is expected to moderate and to stay close to 2.1% annually in 2018-2019, as a result of normalising monetary policies by central banks and more stable investment growth

Growth in emerging economies, on the other hand, is estimated to accelerate to 5.2% annually in 2018-2019 due to continuing recovery in commodity exporters. Emerging countries will account for around 76% of global growth.

However, for many major economies the economic recovery cycle may come to an end in 2019, restrained by slow productivity growth, lack of labour force, rising inflation and higher interest rates, as well as elevated debt levels

Geopolitical tensions, protectionism and crumbling international trade agreements pose additional risks to the growth trajectory of the world’s major economies, with a possibility of negative spill-overs across the regions and globally.

Overview

Global Economy
Executive Summary
Real GDP Growth Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter
Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter
Interest Rate Forecast
Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Aggregate Demand
Private Sector Sentiment and Labour Markets
Financial Markets

The Eurozone

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Aggregate Demand
Private Sector Sentiment and Labour Markets
Financial Markets

The UK

GDP and General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Confidence and Retail Sales
Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

Economic Activity and Inflation
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Labour Market and Retail Sales

China

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Output and Economic Activity
Private Sector Sentiment and Financial Conditions

Russia

Economic Recovery and GDP Growth
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Economic Activity Indicators
Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity and Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Political Uncertainty and Business Conditions
Inflation and Monetary Policy

India

GDP and Components
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Industrial Production and External Sector
Inflation and Monetary Policy

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios
Scenario Descriptions
Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives
Definitions
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