Annual global economic growth is forecast to decelerate to 3.5% in 2019 and 2020, down from 3.7% in 2018. The global outlook deterioration has been primarily a result of downgrades to the advanced economies. The real GDP in advanced economies is estimated to grow by 2.0% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, a decline from 2.3% in 2018. Emerging economies are anticipated to see a steadier real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2019 and 4.7% in 2020, which is similar to a pace of 4.6% in 2018.
The global outlook deterioration has been primarily a result of downgrades to the advanced economies, including the US and the Eurozone, but also to some emerging economies such as Mexico and Russia.
Emerging economies are anticipated to see a steadier real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2019 and 4.7% in 2020, which is similar to a pace of 4.6% in 2018.
The recent decline in financial asset prices also suggests a risk of recession in 2019.
The Eurozone outlook is also clouded by a possibility of a no-deal Brexit and Italian fiscal policy. Lower oil prices and the emergence of populist leaders in Latin America could further weigh on the outlook of emerging economies.
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