Global Economic Forecasts: Q1 2019

Strategy Briefing

About This Report

Feb 2019

Annual global economic growth is forecast to decelerate to 3.5% in 2019 and 2020, down from 3.7% in 2018. The global outlook deterioration has been primarily a result of downgrades to the advanced economies. The real GDP in advanced economies is estimated to grow by 2.0% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, a decline from 2.3% in 2018. Emerging economies are anticipated to see a steadier real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2019 and 4.7% in 2020, which is similar to a pace of 4.6% in 2018.

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Global Economic Forecasts: Q1 2019

Annual global economic growth is forecast to decelerate to 3.5% in 2019 and 2020, down from 3.7% in 2018

The global outlook deterioration has been primarily a result of downgrades to the advanced economies, including the US and the Eurozone, but also to some emerging economies such as Mexico and Russia.

The real GDP in advanced economies is estimated to grow by 2.0% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, a decline from 2.3% in 2018

Emerging economies are anticipated to see a steadier real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2019 and 4.7% in 2020, which is similar to a pace of 4.6% in 2018.

The world trade growth is likely to weaken in 2019 as a result of a pullback in globalisation and increasing political risks

The recent decline in financial asset prices also suggests a risk of recession in 2019.

Major global risks are stemming from remaining trade war uncertainty, tightening financial conditions, and risks of a worse-than-expected Chinese economic slowdown

The Eurozone outlook is also clouded by a possibility of a no-deal Brexit and Italian fiscal policy. Lower oil prices and the emergence of populist leaders in Latin America could further weigh on the outlook of emerging economies.

Overview

Global Economy
Executive Summary
GDP Growth Forecasts: Revisions Over Last Quarter
Inflation Forecasts: Revisions Over Last Quarter
Interest Rate Forecast
Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook
Forecast Risks
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Aggregate Demand
Private Sector Sentiment
Labour Markets and Household Income

The Eurozone

General Outlook
Forecast Risks
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Private Sector Sentiment and Investment
Consumption and Labour Markets
Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions

The UK

GDP and Consumer Sentiment
Brexit and Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Retail Sales and Property Market
Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

Economic Activity
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Foreign Trade and Tax Hike

China

General Outlook
Forecast Risks
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Aggregate Demand and Private Sector Confidence
Financial Conditions

Russia

GDP Growth
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Production and Wages
Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Pension Reform

India

GDP and Components
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Inflation and Monetary Policy
Industrial Production and Foreign Trade

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios
Scenario Descriptions
Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives
Definitions