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Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q1 2019

Feb 2019

US$1,325

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About This Report

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If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE!

Annual global economic growth is forecast to decelerate to 3.5% in 2019 and 2020, down from 3.7% in 2018. The global outlook deterioration has been primarily a result of downgrades to the advanced economies. The real GDP in advanced economies is estimated to grow by 2.0% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, a decline from 2.3% in 2018. Emerging economies are anticipated to see a steadier real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2019 and 4.7% in 2020, which is similar to a pace of 4.6% in 2018.

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Overview

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Annual global economic growth is forecast to decelerate to 3.5% in 2019 and 2020, down from 3.7% in 2018

The global outlook deterioration has been primarily a result of downgrades to the advanced economies, including the US and the Eurozone, but also to some emerging economies such as Mexico and Russia.

The real GDP in advanced economies is estimated to grow by 2.0% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, a decline from 2.3% in 2018

Emerging economies are anticipated to see a steadier real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2019 and 4.7% in 2020, which is similar to a pace of 4.6% in 2018.

The world trade growth is likely to weaken in 2019 as a result of a pullback in globalisation and increasing political risks

The recent decline in financial asset prices also suggests a risk of recession in 2019.

Major global risks are stemming from remaining trade war uncertainty, tightening financial conditions, and risks of a worse-than-expected Chinese economic slowdown

The Eurozone outlook is also clouded by a possibility of a no-deal Brexit and Italian fiscal policy. Lower oil prices and the emergence of populist leaders in Latin America could further weigh on the outlook of emerging economies.

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Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Growth Forecasts: Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts: Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Forecast Risks

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Aggregate Demand

Private Sector Sentiment

Labour Markets and Household Income

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Forecast Risks

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Private Sector Sentiment and Investment

Consumption and Labour Markets

Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions

The UK

GDP and Consumer Sentiment

Brexit and Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Retail Sales and Property Market

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Foreign Trade and Tax Hike

China

General Outlook

Forecast Risks

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Aggregate Demand and Private Sector Confidence

Financial Conditions

Russia

GDP Growth

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Production and Wages

Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Pension Reform

India

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Industrial Production and Foreign Trade

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q1 2019

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Annual global economic growth is forecast to decelerate to 3.5% in 2019 and 2020, down from 3.7% in 2018

The real GDP in advanced economies is estimated to grow by 2.0% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, a decline from 2.3% in 2018

The world trade growth is likely to weaken in 2019 as a result of a pullback in globalisation and increasing political risks

Major global risks are stemming from remaining trade war uncertainty, tightening financial conditions, and risks of a worse-than-expected Chinese economic slowdown

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Growth Forecasts: Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts: Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Forecast Risks

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Aggregate Demand

Private Sector Sentiment

Labour Markets and Household Income

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Forecast Risks

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Private Sector Sentiment and Investment

Consumption and Labour Markets

Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions

The UK

GDP and Consumer Sentiment

Brexit and Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Retail Sales and Property Market

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Foreign Trade and Tax Hike

China

General Outlook

Forecast Risks

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Aggregate Demand and Private Sector Confidence

Financial Conditions

Russia

GDP Growth

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Production and Wages

Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Pension Reform

India

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Industrial Production and Foreign Trade

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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