Global Economic Forecasts: Q1 2019
Strategy Briefing
About This Report
Feb 2019Annual global economic growth is forecast to decelerate to 3.5% in 2019 and 2020, down from 3.7% in 2018. The global outlook deterioration has been primarily a result of downgrades to the advanced economies. The real GDP in advanced economies is estimated to grow by 2.0% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, a decline from 2.3% in 2018. Emerging economies are anticipated to see a steadier real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2019 and 4.7% in 2020, which is similar to a pace of 4.6% in 2018.
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Global Economic Forecasts: Q1 2019
Annual global economic growth is forecast to decelerate to 3.5% in 2019 and 2020, down from 3.7% in 2018
The global outlook deterioration has been primarily a result of downgrades to the advanced economies, including the US and the Eurozone, but also to some emerging economies such as Mexico and Russia.
The real GDP in advanced economies is estimated to grow by 2.0% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, a decline from 2.3% in 2018
Emerging economies are anticipated to see a steadier real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2019 and 4.7% in 2020, which is similar to a pace of 4.6% in 2018.
The world trade growth is likely to weaken in 2019 as a result of a pullback in globalisation and increasing political risks
The recent decline in financial asset prices also suggests a risk of recession in 2019.
Major global risks are stemming from remaining trade war uncertainty, tightening financial conditions, and risks of a worse-than-expected Chinese economic slowdown
The Eurozone outlook is also clouded by a possibility of a no-deal Brexit and Italian fiscal policy. Lower oil prices and the emergence of populist leaders in Latin America could further weigh on the outlook of emerging economies.
Overview
Global Economy
Executive Summary
GDP Growth Forecasts: Revisions Over Last Quarter
Inflation Forecasts: Revisions Over Last Quarter
Interest Rate Forecast
Major Forecast Revisions
The US
General Outlook
Forecast Risks
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Aggregate Demand
Private Sector Sentiment
Labour Markets and Household Income
The Eurozone
General Outlook
Forecast Risks
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Private Sector Sentiment and Investment
Consumption and Labour Markets
Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions
The UK
GDP and Consumer Sentiment
Brexit and Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Retail Sales and Property Market
Inflation and Monetary Policy
Japan
Economic Activity
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Foreign Trade and Tax Hike
China
General Outlook
Forecast Risks
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Aggregate Demand and Private Sector Confidence
Financial Conditions
Russia
GDP Growth
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Production and Wages
Inflation and Income
Brazil
Economic Activity
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Pension Reform
India
GDP and Components
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Inflation and Monetary Policy
Industrial Production and Foreign Trade
Risk Scenarios
Global Risk Scenarios
Scenario Descriptions
Scenario News
Notes
Scope and Objectives
Definitions
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