Our baseline global GDP growth forecast has remained stable since Q4 2019 at around 3% in 2020, improving slightly to 3.2% growth in 2021. Positive factors in the outlook remain above average consumer confidence in key economies, supportive monetary policy and low financial system stress. Negative factors for the outlook include ongoing geopolitical and trade war risks, declining business confidence, high corporate debt levels in key economies, and uncertainty surrounding the recent coronavirus
This report comes in PPT.
This reflects offsetting effects of improvements in the US and Japan outlooks, countered by a worsening outlook for The Eurozone and India.
Positive factors in the outlook remain above average consumer confidence in key economies, supportive monetary policy and low financial system stress.
Negative factors for the outlook include ongoing geopolitical and trade war risks, declining business confidence, high corporate debt levels in key economies, and uncertainty surrounding the recent coronavirus outbreak in China.
On the other hand, the recent coronavirus outbreak in China may easily cut 0.1-0.3 off our 2020 global GDP growth forecast once more precise data about its impact in Q1 is available. There is a significant risk of a more persistent outbreak, spilling over into a downturn in consumer spending, business investment and production.
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