Global Economic Forecasts: Q1 2020

February 2020

Our baseline global GDP growth forecast has remained stable since Q4 2019 at around 3% in 2020, improving slightly to 3.2% growth in 2021. Positive factors in the outlook remain above average consumer confidence in key economies, supportive monetary policy and low financial system stress. Negative factors for the outlook include ongoing geopolitical and trade war risks, declining business confidence, high corporate debt levels in key economies, and uncertainty surrounding the recent coronavirus

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Global Baseline Outlook

Our baseline global GDP growth forecast has remained stable since Q4 2019 at around 3% in 2020 (similar to 2019), improving slightly to 3.2% growth in 2021. 

This reflects offsetting effects of improvements in the US and Japan outlooks, countered by a worsening outlook for The Eurozone and India. 

Positive factors in the outlook remain above average consumer confidence in key economies, supportive monetary policy and low financial system stress.

Negative factors for the outlook include ongoing geopolitical and trade war risks, declining business confidence, high corporate debt levels in key economies, and uncertainty surrounding the recent coronavirus outbreak in China.

The January 2020 US-China phase one trade deal has the risks and uncertainty surrounding a trade-war escalation since the end of 2019.

On the other hand, the recent coronavirus outbreak in China may easily cut 0.1-0.3 off our 2020 global GDP growth forecast once more precise data about its impact in Q1 is available. There is a significant risk of a more persistent outbreak, spilling over into  a downturn in consumer spending, business investment and production. 

Global Outlook

Global Baseline Outlook
Real GDP Annual Growth Forecasts and Revisions from Last Quarter, AE (%, percentage points)
Real GDP Annual Growth Forecasts and Revisions from Last Quarter, EMDE (%, percentage points)
Inflation Quarterly Forecasts, %
Central Bank Interest Rate Quarterly Forecasts
Global Risks
Global Risk Index Scores and Rankings

The US

General Outlook
Main Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Global Forecast Risks (1)
Global Forecast Risks (2)
Short-Term Economic Activity
Consumption and Business Investment (1)
Consumption and Business Investment (2)
Monetary Policy and Financial Markets (1)
Monetary Policy and Financial Markets (2)

China

General Outlook (1)
General Outlook (2)
Main Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Global Forecast Risks (1)
Global Forecast Risks (2)
Economic Activity and Private Sector Sentiment (1)
Economic Activity and Private Sector Sentiment (2)
Consumption and Investment
Monetary Policy and Financial Markets

India

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
GDP and Components

Japan

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Economic Activity
Japan leads with controversial monetary policy decisions again

The Eurozone

General Outlook
Main Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Short-Term Economic Activity and Business Environment (1)
Short-Term Economic Activity and Business Environment (2)
Eurozone Monetary Policy and Financial Markets (1)
Eurozone Monetary Policy and Financial Markets (2)
Eurozone Monetary Policy and Financial Markets (3)

The UK

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
What happens if the transition period ends without an FTA deal?
Economic Activity and Private Sector Sentiment

Russia

Economic Activity Growth
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Production and Investment
Inflation, Income and Consumption

Brazil

General Outlook
General Outlook (2)
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Economic Activity and Sentiment of Private Sector

Notes

Scope and Objectives
Global Risk Scenario Descriptions
Definitions
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