Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q2 2016

May 2016

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So far so good – no return to global recession has happened yet, but the newest indicators for the global economy signal a weakening, and the business mood is worsening. In this context, we have revised the world GDP growth forecast down to 3.0% for 2016 and 3.2% for 2017. In our view, the risks are downside this year. The world’s stock markets have rebounded from the sharp drops of early 2016, but financial stability has decreased and risk-aversion is rising.

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Overview

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GDP Growth Winners and Losers

US GDP to decline

We have revised our US GDP growth forecasts downwards to 2% in 2016 and 2.2% in 2017.

The stock market has recovered from the declines of January and February, but growth in the 1st half of the year will remain below trend.

Eurozone

We have downgraded Eurozone GDP growth forecasts to 1.4% in 2016 and 1.6% in 2017.

Financial markets uncertainty has increased, demand from emerging markets has declined further and sentiment indicators have worsened.

UK Weaker than expected end of the year in UK led to a downward forecast revision to 1.9% GDP growth in 2016.

Investment growth is likely to be slowing down due to the uncertainty around the upcoming Brexit vote.

Japan

Japan's economy is recovering very slowly despite government stimulus measures.

The negative sentiment has recently been fuelled by a series of earthquakes, forcing manufacturers to shut down operations. We forecast 0.6% GDP growth in 2016.

China

China's economy is still on track to grow by 6.5% in 2016 and 6% in 2017, based on official GDP numbers. The government has relaxed its budget deficit target to 3%, providing room for some fiscal stimulus.

Brazil

Brazil's outlook for 2016 was revised further down to 3.8% decline. Even the upcoming Olympics bring little hope, overshadowed by corruption scandals, political woes and loss of investor confidence.

Russia

We expect a significant slowdown in the slump of Russian economy compared with 2015. GDP is projected to fall by 1.7% in 2016 followed by a close to zero recovery in 2017.

India

India finished the year 2015 with still solid 7.3 percent growth in Q4. The outlook for 2016 remains strong 7.5 % growth, backed by private consumption growth supported by measures planned in Union budget 2016.

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Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

GDP and Consumption

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Investment and Private Sector Confidence

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Financial Market Conditions

Labour Market

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Consumption and Investment

Private Sector Confidence

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Credit Conditions

The UK

GDP and Components

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Brexit

Exchange Rate , Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

GDP, Inflation and Exchange Rate

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Monetary Policy and Production

China

General Outlook

GDP and Economic Activity

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Private Sector Confidence

Monetary Policy and Credit Markets

Russia

GDP and Production

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

GDP Components

Inflation and Interest Rate

Brazil

GDP, Inflation and Foreign Trade

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Political Situation and The Olympics

India

GDP and Production

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

GDP Components and Monetary Policy

Public Finances

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q2 2016

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

GDP Growth Winners and Losers

US GDP to decline

Eurozone

Japan

China

Brazil

Russia

India

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

GDP and Consumption

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Investment and Private Sector Confidence

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Financial Market Conditions

Labour Market

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Consumption and Investment

Private Sector Confidence

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Credit Conditions

The UK

GDP and Components

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Brexit

Exchange Rate , Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

GDP, Inflation and Exchange Rate

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Monetary Policy and Production

China

General Outlook

GDP and Economic Activity

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Private Sector Confidence

Monetary Policy and Credit Markets

Russia

GDP and Production

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

GDP Components

Inflation and Interest Rate

Brazil

GDP, Inflation and Foreign Trade

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Political Situation and The Olympics

India

GDP and Production

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

GDP Components and Monetary Policy

Public Finances

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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