Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q2 2017

46 pages, May 2017

US$1,325

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The global economy gained speed in Q4 2016 and expanded by 3.3% year-on-year. The growth momentum is anticipated to persist throughout 2017. We expect the world GDP growth to pick up from 3.2% in 2016 to 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018. Emerging markets continue to account for most of global growth. In advanced economies confidence indicators have also increased, but aging population and feeble productivity growth will keep constraining the outlook. Global macro risks have declined since February.

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Overview

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The global economy gained speed in Q4 2016 and expanded by 3.3% year-on-year

The growth momentum is anticipated to persist throughout 2017. We expect the world GDP growth to pick up from 3.2% in 2016 to 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018.

Emerging and developing economies continue to account for most of global growth

Their economic activity has accelerated due to rebound in commodity prices and increasing global demand. The GDP growth is expected to gradually rise from 4.4% in 2016 towards 5% in 2018 on the back of higher commodity prices and recovery in commodity exporters like Brazil and Russia.

In advanced economies consumer confidence has increased notably in the second half of 2016 and early 2017

Financial markets and business sentiment have also improved. The US and Eurozone seem to be entering a more robust recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2011 Eurozone crisis. Yet aging population and feeble productivity growth will keep constraining the advanced economies’ outlook in a medium term and GDP growth is forecast to stay around 1.8% over 2017-2018.

Overall global macroeconomic risks have declined since February 2017

However, advanced economies remain exposed to the risk of economic stagnation due to slow labour productivity growth and high political uncertainty. While Emmanuel Macron’s presidential win in France is good news for Europe, the populist wave hasn’t gone away. Emerging markets remain vulnerable to tighter global financing conditions and China continues facing the risk of credit downturn as a result of slow progress on controlling financial risks.

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Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Private Sector Sentiment and Stock Market

Consumption and Investment

Labour Markets and Disposable Income

Interest Rates and Inflation

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Private Sector Sentiment

Consumption and Investment

Interest Rates and Inflation

The UK

Brexit Scenarios and General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Exchange Rate, Inflation and Monetary Policy

Labour Markets and Consumer Spending

Japan

GDP, Trade Conditions and Inflation

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Labour Markets

China

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Output and Economic Activity

Credit Markets and Monetary Policy

Russia

GDP Growth and Production

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

GDP C omponents

Income and Inflation

Brazil

GDP, Interest Rate and Unemployment

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Pension Reform

India

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Consumption, Investment and Business Environment

Inflation, Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q2 2017

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

The global economy gained speed in Q4 2016 and expanded by 3.3% year-on-year

Emerging and developing economies continue to account for most of global growth

In advanced economies consumer confidence has increased notably in the second half of 2016 and early 2017

Overall global macroeconomic risks have declined since February 2017

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Private Sector Sentiment and Stock Market

Consumption and Investment

Labour Markets and Disposable Income

Interest Rates and Inflation

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Private Sector Sentiment

Consumption and Investment

Interest Rates and Inflation

The UK

Brexit Scenarios and General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Exchange Rate, Inflation and Monetary Policy

Labour Markets and Consumer Spending

Japan

GDP, Trade Conditions and Inflation

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Labour Markets

China

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Output and Economic Activity

Credit Markets and Monetary Policy

Russia

GDP Growth and Production

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

GDP C omponents

Income and Inflation

Brazil

GDP, Interest Rate and Unemployment

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Pension Reform

India

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Consumption, Investment and Business Environment

Inflation, Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?

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