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Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q2 2018

May 2018

US$1,325

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About This Report

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If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE!

Global economy continues to perform strongly, both in advanced and emerging markets. Global real GDP expanded by 4.0% in Q4 2017. Growth was supported by higher investment activity in advanced economies, higher consumer demand in emerging markets, and a rebound in global trade. We expect global GDP to grow by 3.8-3.9% per year over 2018-2019, albeit with a gradual easing on the cards as central banks tighten monetary policy, US fiscal stimulus subsides, and China’s slowdown progresses.

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Overview

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Global economic activity continues to perform strongly, both in advanced and emerging market economies

Global real GDP expanded by 4.0% in Q4 2017, which was notably above our baseline forecasts a year ago. Growth was supported by higher investment activity in advanced economies, higher consumer demand in emerging markets, and a rebound in global trade.

In the May 2018 baseline we forecast global real GDP to grow by 3.8-3.9% per year over 2018-2019, albeit with a gradual easing on the cards

As central banks tighten monetary policy, US fiscal stimulus subsides, and China’s slowdown progresses. Despite positive near-term economic prospects for the world, debt levels, financial market volatility, trade and geopolitical tensions pose a threat.

Our newly-introduced Global Downturn scenario captures hypothetical effects of the above downside risks

The scenario assumes escalating fears about trade wars and more populist policies, as well as concerns about overvaluation in financial markets, which could lead to a self-fulfilling sell-off in advanced economies, and through global spill-overs induce a slowdown in emerging markets. If materialised, these risks have the power to reduce global GDP growth by a cumulative 5.4% over the 3-year horizon.

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Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Growth Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Private Sector Sentiment and Financial Markets

Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions

Aggregate Demand

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Private Sector Sentiment

Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions

Aggregate Demand

The UK

Economic Outlook and Brexit

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Labour and Private Sentiment

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Foreign Trade

China

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Global Risks

Aggregate Demand

Financial Conditions

Russia

GDP Growth

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Production and Wages

Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Fiscal Accounts and Presidential Election

Foreign Trade

India

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Industrial Production and Business Sentiment

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q2 2018

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Global economic activity continues to perform strongly, both in advanced and emerging market economies

In the May 2018 baseline we forecast global real GDP to grow by 3.8-3.9% per year over 2018-2019, albeit with a gradual easing on the cards

Our newly-introduced Global Downturn scenario captures hypothetical effects of the above downside risks

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Growth Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Private Sector Sentiment and Financial Markets

Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions

Aggregate Demand

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Private Sector Sentiment

Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions

Aggregate Demand

The UK

Economic Outlook and Brexit

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Labour and Private Sentiment

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Foreign Trade

China

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Global Risks

Aggregate Demand

Financial Conditions

Russia

GDP Growth

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Production and Wages

Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Fiscal Accounts and Presidential Election

Foreign Trade

India

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Industrial Production and Business Sentiment

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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