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Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q2 2019

Jun 2019

US$1,325

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About This Report

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If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE!

Global GDP growth slowed down in 2018 to 3.7%. The weak growth momentum will carry on to 2019. In 2019-2020, annual global output expansion is forecast to decline to 3.3-3.4%. Global financial conditions have improved since the end of 2018 after big negative shocks in Q4 2018, but they remain tighter than in October 2018. The loosening monetary policy of the main central banks have supported the stock markets’ rally in Q1 2019. Global monetary policy will tighten very gradually over 2019-2021.

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Overview

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Global economic expansion slowed down in 2018 to 3.7%. The weak growth momentum is expected to carry on to 2019. In 2019-2020, annual global output expansion is forecast to decline to 3.3-3.4%.

Advanced economies are expected to see their economic activity slow down gradually in 2019-2020, with real GDP growth averaging 1.5-1.8% annually in 2019-2020.

Labour productivity and real wage growth will improve but remain disappointing at 0.7-1.7% annually.

Emerging economies, by contrast, are anticipated to witness improving economic dynamics and expand by around 4.6-4.8% annually in 2019-2020.

India and China, despite the gradual slowdown of the latter, will remain a core of emerging economies’ output growth.

Global financial conditions have improved since the end of 2018 after big negative shocks in Q4 2018, but they remain tighter than in October 2018.

The loosening monetary policy stances of the main global central banks have also supported the stock markets’ rally in Q1 2019. Global monetary policy will tighten very gradually over 2019-2021, with both the Fed and ECB providing forward guidance of delaying further interest rate increases in 2019.

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Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Growth Forecasts: Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts: Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Forecast Risks

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Consumer Sentiment and Spending

Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions

Labour Markets and Business Investment

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Forecast Risks

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Business and Financial Conditions

Labour Markets and Consumption

The UK

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Private Sentiment and Retail Sales

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Foreign Trade

China

General Outlook

Forecast Risks

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Economic Activity and Private Sector Sentiment

Financial Conditions

Russia

GDP Growth

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Production and Wages

Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Foreign Trade and Pension Reform

India

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Foreign Trade and Stock Markets

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q2 2019

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Global economic expansion slowed down in 2018 to 3.7%. The weak growth momentum is expected to carry on to 2019. In 2019-2020, annual global output expansion is forecast to decline to 3.3-3.4%.

Advanced economies are expected to see their economic activity slow down gradually in 2019-2020, with real GDP growth averaging 1.5-1.8% annually in 2019-2020.

Emerging economies, by contrast, are anticipated to witness improving economic dynamics and expand by around 4.6-4.8% annually in 2019-2020.

Global financial conditions have improved since the end of 2018 after big negative shocks in Q4 2018, but they remain tighter than in October 2018.

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Table of Contents

Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Growth Forecasts: Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts: Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Forecast Risks

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Consumer Sentiment and Spending

Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions

Labour Markets and Business Investment

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Forecast Risks

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Business and Financial Conditions

Labour Markets and Consumption

The UK

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Private Sentiment and Retail Sales

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Foreign Trade

China

General Outlook

Forecast Risks

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Economic Activity and Private Sector Sentiment

Financial Conditions

Russia

GDP Growth

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Production and Wages

Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Foreign Trade and Pension Reform

India

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Foreign Trade and Stock Markets

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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