Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q3 2016

50 pages, Aug 2016

US$1,325

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About This Report

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The global economy was already not in the best shape, and recent political events in developed economies have caused additional risks. The Brexit vote has worsened the outlook for the UK and the EU in the time of major structural problems of European banks, high geopolitical tensions, increased terrorism threats and the on-going refugee crisis. The negative impact of the Brexit vote and slow growth in the US have led us to revise the global growth projection slightly downwards for 2016–2017.

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Overview

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Global Economic Forecasts By Country

US

The economy has slowed down in recent quarters due to contraction of business investment. Growth is likely to be just 1.6% in 2016, before returning to a more normal 2.1% in 2017.

Eurozone

The combination of higher than expected growth in the first quarter, and negative spill-overs from the UK Brexit vote led to a revised forecast of 1.5% GDP growth in 2016 and 1.3% in 2017.

UK

After the Brexit vote in June, UK GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.6% in 2016 (1.9% in pre-Brexit forecasts), and 0.6% in 2017 (previously 2.1%), with a rebound to 1.8% in 2018.

Japan

In Q1 2016, Japan’s economy continued to decelerate, posting zero GDP growth. We expect the economy to be sluggish over the next few years, with real GDP growing 0.5% in 2016 and 0.7% in 2017.

GDP GROWTH HIGHLIGHTS

China

China’s economy was growing slightly better than expected in the first half of 2016, suggesting that the government may achieve its target of 6.5-7% growth for the year.

Brazil

Although economic conditions remain poor, there are signs of the economy bottoming out. Consequently, we have lifted our GDP forecasts to -3.3% in 2016 and 0.3% in 2017.

Russia

A moderate recovery of oil prices and some positive industrial data in the first half of 2016 led us to revise our real GDP growth forecast to -1% in 2016, and 0.8% growth in 2017.

India

India should bear little impact from Brexit due to its domestically-driven economy. We have therefore left our forecasts unchanged, with 7.5% real GDP growth in both 2016 and 2017.

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overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Growth Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Downside Risks

Consumer Spending and Confidence

Business Investment a nd Confidence

Financial Markets

Interest Rates and Inflation

The Eurozone

Output and Labour Productivity Growth

Downside Risks

Consumer Spending and Confidence

Investment and Business Confidence

Financial Markets

Inflation and Interest Rates

The UK

Real GDP Growth post- Brexit

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Investment and Private Sector Confidence

Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy

Financial Sector

Japan

GDP, Exchange Rate and Labour Market

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Monetary Policy

Fiscal Policy

China

General Outlook

Downside Risks

Output and Economic Activity

Credit and Financial Markets

Russia

GDP Growth and Production

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

GDP components

Income, Inflation and Interest Rate

Brazil

GDP and Inflation

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Political Situation, Business Confidence and Bond Market

Government Budget

India

GDP and Components

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Investment and Foreign Capital Flows

Monetary Policy and Inflation

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q3 2016

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Global Economic Forecasts By Country

US

Eurozone

UK

Japan

GDP GROWTH HIGHLIGHTS

China

Brazil

Russia

India

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Growth Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Downside Risks

Consumer Spending and Confidence

Business Investment a nd Confidence

Financial Markets

Interest Rates and Inflation

The Eurozone

Output and Labour Productivity Growth

Downside Risks

Consumer Spending and Confidence

Investment and Business Confidence

Financial Markets

Inflation and Interest Rates

The UK

Real GDP Growth post- Brexit

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Investment and Private Sector Confidence

Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy

Financial Sector

Japan

GDP, Exchange Rate and Labour Market

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Monetary Policy

Fiscal Policy

China

General Outlook

Downside Risks

Output and Economic Activity

Credit and Financial Markets

Russia

GDP Growth and Production

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

GDP components

Income, Inflation and Interest Rate

Brazil

GDP and Inflation

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Political Situation, Business Confidence and Bond Market

Government Budget

India

GDP and Components

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Investment and Foreign Capital Flows

Monetary Policy and Inflation

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?