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Learn moreAug 2016
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The global economy was already not in the best shape, and recent political events in developed economies have caused additional risks. The Brexit vote has worsened the outlook for the UK and the EU in the time of major structural problems of European banks, high geopolitical tensions, increased terrorism threats and the on-going refugee crisis. The negative impact of the Brexit vote and slow growth in the US have led us to revise the global growth projection slightly downwards for 2016–2017.
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The economy has slowed down in recent quarters due to contraction of business investment. Growth is likely to be just 1.6% in 2016, before returning to a more normal 2.1% in 2017.
The combination of higher than expected growth in the first quarter, and negative spill-overs from the UK Brexit vote led to a revised forecast of 1.5% GDP growth in 2016 and 1.3% in 2017.
After the Brexit vote in June, UK GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.6% in 2016 (1.9% in pre-Brexit forecasts), and 0.6% in 2017 (previously 2.1%), with a rebound to 1.8% in 2018.
In Q1 2016, Japan’s economy continued to decelerate, posting zero GDP growth. We expect the economy to be sluggish over the next few years, with real GDP growing 0.5% in 2016 and 0.7% in 2017.
China’s economy was growing slightly better than expected in the first half of 2016, suggesting that the government may achieve its target of 6.5-7% growth for the year.
Although economic conditions remain poor, there are signs of the economy bottoming out. Consequently, we have lifted our GDP forecasts to -3.3% in 2016 and 0.3% in 2017.
A moderate recovery of oil prices and some positive industrial data in the first half of 2016 led us to revise our real GDP growth forecast to -1% in 2016, and 0.8% growth in 2017.
India should bear little impact from Brexit due to its domestically-driven economy. We have therefore left our forecasts unchanged, with 7.5% real GDP growth in both 2016 and 2017.
Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.