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Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q3 2017

Aug 2017

US$1,325

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The global economy has started 2017 strong with real GDP growth reaching 3.6% year-on-year in 2017 Q1. We have maintained our world GDP growth forecasts at 3.5% for 2017-2018. The economic activity is estimated to accelerate in both advanced and emerging economies, reaching 2.0% and 4.7% growth, respectively, in 2017. The uncertainty surrounding the global forecast has somewhat receded. Some of the most important risks are stemming from the US policies, Brexit negotiations, and China slowdown.

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Overview

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Global Economy OVERVIEW

The global economy has started 2017 strong with real GDP growth gaining momentum and rising to 3.6% in 2017 Q1. We have maintained our global real GDP growth forecast at 3.5% for 2017-2018.

Despite standing above the annual 3.2% growth in 2016, the forecast is still considerably below the pre-crisis growth levels. The economic activity is forecast to accelerate in both advanced and emerging economies, reaching 2.0% and 4.7% growth, respectively, in 2017.

Emerging markets growth

Emerging markets however, will remain a principal driver of the global economic growth, accounting for as much as 74% of the world’s real GDP expansion. This share is predicted to surge further up to 79% in 2020. The uncertainty surrounding the global growth forecast has somewhat receded since May 2017.

Political Risks

The political risks have diminished in Europe, with the region rebounding more strongly than expected.The populist parties have performed worse than expected in a number of Eurozone elections, which suggests that the populist surge might begin to fade.

Unexpected US policies

Some of the most urgent global risks presently are stemming from the unexpected US policies, rising geopolitical tensions, uncertain outcome of Brexit negotiations, or the possibility of sharper than estimated China growth slowdown.

These changes could complicate the macroeconomic situation in major economies with negative spill-overs to other countries and result in damage to their private confidence,investments and overall economic growth.

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Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Consumer Spending and Labour Markets

Private Sector Sentiment and Business Investment

Financial Markets

Interest Rates and Inflation

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Consumption and Investment

Labour Markets and Productivity

Financial Markets and Monetary Policy

The UK

GDP and General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Private Sentiment and Consumer Spending

Japan

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Labour Market

China

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Output and Economic Activity

Financial Markets and Monetary Policy

Russia

GDP Growth and Production

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

GDP Components

Income, Inflation and Exchange Rate

Brazil

Economic Activity and Inflation

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Political Situation and Fiscal Balance

Labour Market Reform

India

GDP and Industrial Production

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Business Conditions and Tax Reform

Interest Rates and Inflation

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q3 2017

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Global Economy OVERVIEW

Emerging markets growth

Political Risks

Unexpected US policies

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Consumer Spending and Labour Markets

Private Sector Sentiment and Business Investment

Financial Markets

Interest Rates and Inflation

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Consumption and Investment

Labour Markets and Productivity

Financial Markets and Monetary Policy

The UK

GDP and General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Private Sentiment and Consumer Spending

Japan

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Labour Market

China

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Output and Economic Activity

Financial Markets and Monetary Policy

Russia

GDP Growth and Production

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

GDP Components

Income, Inflation and Exchange Rate

Brazil

Economic Activity and Inflation

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Political Situation and Fiscal Balance

Labour Market Reform

India

GDP and Industrial Production

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Business Conditions and Tax Reform

Interest Rates and Inflation

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?

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