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Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q3 2018

Aug 2018

US$1,325

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About This Report

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If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE!

Global growth is forecast to reach 3.8% over 2018-2019, but the outlook has turned patchy. Among the advanced economies, the US is projected to see a stronger than expected growth, while the Eurozone, Japan and the UK have experienced some bumps in 2018. Emerging economies have not escaped the growth disparities either. Rising trade tensions, a stronger US dollar and higher oil prices have disfavoured some emerging countries and increased the risks to the global economic growth.

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Overview

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Global growth is forecast to reach 3.8% over 2018-2019, but the country-by-country outlook has turned patchy.

Among the advanced economies, the US is projected to see a stronger growth in the coming quarters, while the Eurozone, Japan and the UK have experienced some bumps in 2018. Advanced economies’ real GDP is expected to grow by around 2.0% annually over 2018-2019.

Emerging economies are projected to see 5.1% real GDP growth over 2018-2019, though they have not escaped the growth disparities either

Rising trade tensions, a stronger US dollar and higher oil prices have disfavoured Asian economies, while some oil exporters saw positive effects. The Brent crude oil price surged by 60% between June 2017 and June 2018, boosting inflation in many advanced and emerging markets.

Although the global and regional growth figures suggest a largely unchanged outlook, the risks to the global economic growth have increased

The escalation of trade protectionism has raised the probabilities of more severe scenarios such as a major trade war or a global downturn. Emerging market vulnerability has also increased on the back of lower investor confidence and contagion fears following Turkey’s financial turmoil. In the worst-case scenario, all these risks could merge leading to a global economic crisis.

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Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Growth Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Consumer Spending and Confidence

Business Investment and Labour Productivity

Labour Markets

Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Consumption and Private Sector Sentiment

Investment and Labour Productivity Growth

Labour Markets

Interest Rates and Financial Conditions

The UK

Brexit and EU without UK

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

GDP and Components

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Labour and House Market

Japan

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Foreign Trade and Labour Market

China

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

US-China Trade War Risks

Consumption and Investment

Financial Conditions

Russia

GDP Growth

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Production and Wages

Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Confidence , Foreign Trade and Presidential Election

India

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Trade Protectionism Risks and Domestic Demand

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q3 2018

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Global growth is forecast to reach 3.8% over 2018-2019, but the country-by-country outlook has turned patchy.

Emerging economies are projected to see 5.1% real GDP growth over 2018-2019, though they have not escaped the growth disparities either

Although the global and regional growth figures suggest a largely unchanged outlook, the risks to the global economic growth have increased

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Growth Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Consumer Spending and Confidence

Business Investment and Labour Productivity

Labour Markets

Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Consumption and Private Sector Sentiment

Investment and Labour Productivity Growth

Labour Markets

Interest Rates and Financial Conditions

The UK

Brexit and EU without UK

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

GDP and Components

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Labour and House Market

Japan

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Foreign Trade and Labour Market

China

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

US-China Trade War Risks

Consumption and Investment

Financial Conditions

Russia

GDP Growth

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Production and Wages

Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Confidence , Foreign Trade and Presidential Election

India

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Trade Protectionism Risks and Domestic Demand

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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