Global Economic Forecasts: Q3 2019

August 2019

The first half of 2019 has seen downgrades to the global outlook especially in emerging and developing economies. Global GDP growth is expected to be 3.1% in 2019, rebounding to 3.3% annually in 2020-2021. Overall global downside risks have increased, with rising trade tensions and financial markets volatility since May 2019.

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Global Baseline Outlook

The first half of 2019 has seen downgrades to the global outlook especially in emerging and developing economies.

Global GDP growth is expected to be 3.1% in 2019, rebounding to 3.3% annually in 2020-2021.

The overwhelming contribution to global growth will continue to come from developing and emerging economies (EM), with their output expected to rise by 4.3% in 2019, improving to 4.7% growth annually in 2020-2021.

Advanced economies (AE) growth is expected to be 1.7% in 2019, declining to 1.5% annually in 2020-2021.

Overall global downside risks have increased, with rising trade tensions and financial markets volatility since May 2019.

 

Global Outlook

Global Baseline Outlook
Positive and Negative Global Factors
Real GDP Annual Growth Forecasts and Revisions from Last Quarter (1) (%, percentage points)
Real GDP Annual Growth Forecasts and Revisions from Last Quarter (2) (%, percentage points)
Inflation Forecasts
Central Bank Interest Rate Forecasts
Global Risks
Global Risk Index Scores and Rankings

The US

General Outlook
Forecast Risks
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Consumer Spending, Labour Markets and Private Sector Sentiment
Business Investment and Financial Markets
Monetary Policy and Interest Rates

China

General Outlook
Forecast Risks
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Economic Activity and Private Sector Sentiment

India

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Inflation and Monetary Policy
Foreign Direct Investment and Business Dynamics

Japan

Economic Activity
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Foreign Trade

The Eurozone

General Outlook
Forecast Risks
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Private Sector Sentiment and Investment
Consumption, Labour Markets and Consumer Confidence
Monetary Policy and Interest Rates

The UK

General Outlook
Forecast Risks
Labour Markets, Inflation and Economic Activity

Russia

GDP Growth
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Production and Investment
Inflation, Income and Consumption

Brazil

Economic Activity (1)
Economic Activity (2)
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Budget Deficit and Access to Workers Guarantee Funds

notes

Scope and Objectives

Notes

Global Risk Scenario Descriptions
Definitions
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