The global 2021 real GDP growth baseline forecast has remained roughly unchanged over the last quarter at 5.8% and real GDP growth of 4.7% in 2022. The stable 2021 global outlook combines major upwards revision to the Eurozone, Brazil and Mexico countered by substantial downgrades to the outlook in India and other Asia Pacific economies. The economic recovery in the baseline forecast would still leave global real GDP more than 2% below the pre-pandemic forecast level in 2022.
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The global 2021 real GDP growth baseline forecast has remained roughly unchanged over the last quarter at 5.8% and real GDP growth of 4.7% in 2022. The strong economic recovery in the baseline forecast would still leave global real GDP more than 2% below the pre-pandemic forecast level in 2022. Furthermore, the momentum of the recovery in 2021 is likely to have peaked.
In the baseline forecast, US real GDP is expected to increase by 6.3% in 2021 and by 4.5% in 2022. However, recovery momentum appears to have peaked during the summer due to the rapid spread of the new highly infectious Delta coronavirus variant. As a result, 2021 real GDP growth has been downgraded by 0.4 percentage points relative to the Q2 forecast.
Chinese economic activity dynamics in mid-2021 show moderate economic growth, with the bulk of the recovery from the pandemic having occurred in 2020. The government’s priorities have shifted from sustaining the recovery to controlling the continuing fast credit growth, reducing financial system risks, and increasing control over the private sector in key sectors.
Faster vaccination campaigns and rising confidence have boosted the Eurozone recovery. A mismatch between speed of vaccination campaigns and the spread of the new Delta variant is likely to reduce the speed of the recovery at the end of 2021.
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