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Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q4 2016

48 pages, Nov 2016

US$1,325

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About This Report

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If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE!

The victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections is another political shock to the economies of the developed world. The real impact of the new leadership to the fundamentals of the US economy will show once some new policies start to be implemented. Yet, based on the pre-elections promises of Mr. Trump, the risks are downward. In light of the elections results, we have revised our forecasts of world GDP growth to 2.8% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018.

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Overview

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GDP GROWTH HIGHLIGHTS

The US

Trump’s surprise victory has significantly raised uncertainty levels and worsened the outlook for the US economy. We have downgraded our baseline forecast to 0.4% in 2017 and 0.7% in 2018.

The Eurozone

After Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections, we have lowered the Eurozone GDP growth forecast to 1% in 2017 and 1.3% in 2018. The outlook for 2016 is almost unchanged.

The UK

The revisions in light of the US election results and the newest Brexit related developments, our baseline forecasts are 0.3% real GDP growth in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018.

Japan

Japan’s economy shows no signs of acceleration so far, with GDP growth hovering close to zero. We have maintained our GDP forecasts unchanged at 0.5% in 2016 and 0.7% in 2017.

China

We have revised our GDP growth forecast for China upwards to 6.7% in 2016 and to 6% in 2017. The effect of improving domestic conditions was cancelled out by US elections uncertainty shock.

Brazil

Brazil’s economy is finally starting to show signs of life after several quarters in the doldrums. As a result, we have lifted our GDP forecast to -3.2% in 2016 and 1.0% in 2017.

Russia

The economic downturn in Russia continued to slow. In our baseline, by the end of 2016, real GDP will decrease by around 0.8%. In 2017 we expect real GDP to grow by about 0.9%.

India

The economy of India continues to be a leader among its peer emerging markets. We forecast growth to reach 7.5% in 2016, 7.7% in 2017 and 7.5% in 2018.

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Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Consumer Spending and Confidence

Labour Market

Business Investment and Productivity

Monetary Policy and Interest Rates

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Consum ption and Labour Markets

Investment and Private Sector Confidence

Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions

The UK

General Outlook

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Consumption and Investment

Exchange Rate, Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

GDP, Inflation and Exchange Rate

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Monetary Policy and Fiscal Position

Labour Market

China

General Outlook

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

China’s Rebalancing and the Shift from Saving to Consumption

Credit and Financial Markets

Russia

GDP Growth and Production

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

GDP Components

Income, Inflation and Interest Rate

Brazil

GDP, Inflation and Interest Rate

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Fiscal Accounts and Confidence

Brazilian Pension System

India

GDP and Components

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Investment and Business Environment

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q4 2016

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

GDP GROWTH HIGHLIGHTS

The US

The Eurozone

The UK

Japan

China

Brazil

Russia

India

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Table of Contents

Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Consumer Spending and Confidence

Labour Market

Business Investment and Productivity

Monetary Policy and Interest Rates

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Consum ption and Labour Markets

Investment and Private Sector Confidence

Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions

The UK

General Outlook

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Consumption and Investment

Exchange Rate, Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

GDP, Inflation and Exchange Rate

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Monetary Policy and Fiscal Position

Labour Market

China

General Outlook

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

China’s Rebalancing and the Shift from Saving to Consumption

Credit and Financial Markets

Russia

GDP Growth and Production

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

GDP Components

Income, Inflation and Interest Rate

Brazil

GDP, Inflation and Interest Rate

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Fiscal Accounts and Confidence

Brazilian Pension System

India

GDP and Components

Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Investment and Business Environment

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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