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Global Economic Forecasts: Q4 2016

November 2016

The victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections is another political shock to the economies of the developed world. The real impact of the new leadership to the fundamentals of the US economy will show once some new policies start to be implemented. Yet, based on the pre-elections promises of Mr. Trump, the risks are downward. In light of the elections results, we have revised our forecasts of world GDP growth to 2.8% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018.

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GDP GROWTH HIGHLIGHTS

The US

Trump’s surprise victory has significantly raised uncertainty levels and worsened the outlook for the US economy. We have downgraded our baseline forecast to 0.4% in 2017 and 0.7% in 2018.

The Eurozone

After Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections, we have lowered the Eurozone GDP growth forecast to 1% in 2017 and 1.3% in 2018. The outlook for 2016 is almost unchanged.

The UK

The revisions in light of the US election results and the newest Brexit related developments, our baseline forecasts are 0.3% real GDP growth in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018.

Japan

Japan’s economy shows no signs of acceleration so far, with GDP growth hovering close to zero. We have maintained our GDP forecasts unchanged at 0.5% in 2016 and 0.7% in 2017.

China

We have revised our GDP growth forecast for China upwards to 6.7% in 2016 and to 6% in 2017. The effect of improving domestic conditions was cancelled out by US elections uncertainty shock.

Brazil

Brazil’s economy is finally starting to show signs of life after several quarters in the doldrums. As a result, we have lifted our GDP forecast to -3.2% in 2016 and 1.0% in 2017.

Russia

The economic downturn in Russia continued to slow. In our baseline, by the end of 2016, real GDP will decrease by around 0.8%. In 2017 we expect real GDP to grow by about 0.9%.

India

The economy of India continues to be a leader among its peer emerging markets. We forecast growth to reach 7.5% in 2016, 7.7% in 2017 and 7.5% in 2018.

Overview

Global Economy
Executive Summary
GDP Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter
Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter
Interest Rate Forecast
Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook
Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario
Consumer Spending and Confidence
Labour Market
Business Investment and Productivity
Monetary Policy and Interest Rates

The Eurozone

General Outlook
Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario
Consum ption and Labour Markets
Investment and Private Sector Confidence
Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions

The UK

General Outlook
Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario
Consumption and Investment
Exchange Rate, Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

GDP, Inflation and Exchange Rate
Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario
Monetary Policy and Fiscal Position
Labour Market

China

General Outlook
Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario
China’s Rebalancing and the Shift from Saving to Consumption
Credit and Financial Markets

Russia

GDP Growth and Production
Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario
GDP Components
Income, Inflation and Interest Rate

Brazil

GDP, Inflation and Interest Rate
Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario
Fiscal Accounts and Confidence
Brazilian Pension System

India

GDP and Components
Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenario
Inflation and Monetary Policy
Investment and Business Environment

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios
Scenario Descriptions
Scenario News

Notes

Scope and Objectives
Definitions
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