The victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections is another political shock to the economies of the developed world. The real impact of the new leadership to the fundamentals of the US economy will show once some new policies start to be implemented. Yet, based on the pre-elections promises of Mr. Trump, the risks are downward. In light of the elections results, we have revised our forecasts of world GDP growth to 2.8% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018.
Trump’s surprise victory has significantly raised uncertainty levels and worsened the outlook for the US economy. We have downgraded our baseline forecast to 0.4% in 2017 and 0.7% in 2018.
After Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections, we have lowered the Eurozone GDP growth forecast to 1% in 2017 and 1.3% in 2018. The outlook for 2016 is almost unchanged.
The revisions in light of the US election results and the newest Brexit related developments, our baseline forecasts are 0.3% real GDP growth in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018.
Japan’s economy shows no signs of acceleration so far, with GDP growth hovering close to zero. We have maintained our GDP forecasts unchanged at 0.5% in 2016 and 0.7% in 2017.
We have revised our GDP growth forecast for China upwards to 6.7% in 2016 and to 6% in 2017. The effect of improving domestic conditions was cancelled out by US elections uncertainty shock.
Brazil’s economy is finally starting to show signs of life after several quarters in the doldrums. As a result, we have lifted our GDP forecast to -3.2% in 2016 and 1.0% in 2017.
The economic downturn in Russia continued to slow. In our baseline, by the end of 2016, real GDP will decrease by around 0.8%. In 2017 we expect real GDP to grow by about 0.9%.
The economy of India continues to be a leader among its peer emerging markets. We forecast growth to reach 7.5% in 2016, 7.7% in 2017 and 7.5% in 2018.
If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE! Home Page