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Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q4 2017

Nov 2017

US$1,325

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About This Report

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If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE!

Global economic growth is gaining pace. In Q2 2017, global real GDP increased by 3.7% year on year, which marked quarterly growth unseen since 2014. Some major economies are witnessing consumer and business sentiment at levels unseen in several years. Financial markets have been on the rise, while Central Banks largely seem in no hurry to normalise interest rates. We estimate the global economy to close 2017 with 3.6% real GDP growth for the year, firming up to 3.7% in 2018.

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Overview

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Global economic growth is gaining pace

Some major economies are witnessing consumer and business sentiment at levels unseen in several years. Financial markets have been on the rise, while Central Banks largely seem in no hurry to normalise interest rates and tone down the appetite for risk.

In Q2 2017, global real GDP increased by 3.7% year on year, which marked quarterly growth unseen since 2014

In our baseline, we estimate the global economy to continue performing strongly in Q3 and close 2017 with 3.6% real GDP growth for the year, firming up to 3.7% in 2018. We have upgraded our baseline forecasts for both advanced economies and emerging markets to 2.1% and 4.9%, respectively, in 2017. The Eurozone, Canada and Japan are exhibiting higher than expected growth. Economic recovery is gradually gaining momentum in Russia and Brazil.

The persistence of strong global performance is, however, not without downside risks, stemming mainly from political noise and the probability of more protectionism

Brexit negotiations continue without any sign of a much-needed breakthrough, and the prevailing uncertainty threatens to hold back the UK economy and business growth. NAFTA negotiations thus far have not yielded results either. Ending NAFTA and reverting to WTO trade rules could result in negative implications not only for Mexico and Canada, but also for the US.

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Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Private Sector Sentiment and Stock Market

Aggregate Demand

Labour Markets and Income Growth

Interest Rates and Inflation

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Private Sector Sentiment and Labour Markets

Aggregate Demand

Interest Rates and Inflation

The UK

GDP and General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Labour Market, Income and Spending

Japan

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Labour Market and Wages

Labour and Fiscal Policy

China

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Output and Economic Activity

Credit Markets

Russia

GDP Growth and Production

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

GDP components

Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Presidential Election and Pension Reform

Investment , Productivity and Competitiveness

India

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Production and Business Conditions

Monetary Policy and Inflation

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q4 2017

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Global economic growth is gaining pace

In Q2 2017, global real GDP increased by 3.7% year on year, which marked quarterly growth unseen since 2014

The persistence of strong global performance is, however, not without downside risks, stemming mainly from political noise and the probability of more protectionism

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Overview

Global Economy

Executive Summary

GDP Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter

Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter

Interest Rate Forecast

Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Private Sector Sentiment and Stock Market

Aggregate Demand

Labour Markets and Income Growth

Interest Rates and Inflation

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Private Sector Sentiment and Labour Markets

Aggregate Demand

Interest Rates and Inflation

The UK

GDP and General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Labour Market, Income and Spending

Japan

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Labour Market and Wages

Labour and Fiscal Policy

China

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Output and Economic Activity

Credit Markets

Russia

GDP Growth and Production

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

GDP components

Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Presidential Election and Pension Reform

Investment , Productivity and Competitiveness

India

GDP and Components

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario

Production and Business Conditions

Monetary Policy and Inflation

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios

Scenario Descriptions

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Definitions

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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