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Global Economic Forecasts: Q4 2017

November 2017

Global economic growth is gaining pace. In Q2 2017, global real GDP increased by 3.7% year on year, which marked quarterly growth unseen since 2014. Some major economies are witnessing consumer and business sentiment at levels unseen in several years. Financial markets have been on the rise, while Central Banks largely seem in no hurry to normalise interest rates. We estimate the global economy to close 2017 with 3.6% real GDP growth for the year, firming up to 3.7% in 2018.

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Global economic growth is gaining pace

Some major economies are witnessing consumer and business sentiment at levels unseen in several years. Financial markets have been on the rise, while Central Banks largely seem in no hurry to normalise interest rates and tone down the appetite for risk.

In Q2 2017, global real GDP increased by 3.7% year on year, which marked quarterly growth unseen since 2014

In our baseline, we estimate the global economy to continue performing strongly in Q3 and close 2017 with 3.6% real GDP growth for the year, firming up to 3.7% in 2018. We have upgraded our baseline forecasts for both advanced economies and emerging markets to 2.1% and 4.9%, respectively, in 2017. The Eurozone, Canada and Japan are exhibiting higher than expected growth. Economic recovery is gradually gaining momentum in Russia and Brazil.

The persistence of strong global performance is, however, not without downside risks, stemming mainly from political noise and the probability of more protectionism

Brexit negotiations continue without any sign of a much-needed breakthrough, and the prevailing uncertainty threatens to hold back the UK economy and business growth. NAFTA negotiations thus far have not yielded results either. Ending NAFTA and reverting to WTO trade rules could result in negative implications not only for Mexico and Canada, but also for the US.

Overview

Global Economy
Executive Summary
GDP Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter
Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter
Interest Rate Forecast
Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Private Sector Sentiment and Stock Market
Aggregate Demand
Labour Markets and Income Growth
Interest Rates and Inflation

The Eurozone

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Private Sector Sentiment and Labour Markets
Aggregate Demand
Interest Rates and Inflation

The UK

GDP and General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Inflation and Monetary Policy
Labour Market, Income and Spending

Japan

Economic Activity
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Labour Market and Wages
Labour and Fiscal Policy

China

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Output and Economic Activity
Credit Markets

Russia

GDP Growth and Production
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
GDP components
Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Presidential Election and Pension Reform
Investment , Productivity and Competitiveness

India

GDP and Components
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Production and Business Conditions
Monetary Policy and Inflation

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios
Scenario Descriptions

Notes

Scope and Objectives
Definitions
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