Global Economic Forecasts: Q4 2018

Strategy Briefing

About This Report

Nov 2018

Growth momentum in many of the world’s economies might have peaked in 2018 and global expansion is projected to start cooling down gradually. Global real GDP growth is forecast at 3.8% in 2018 (a pace similar to 2017), declining to 3.5% in 2019-2020. Overall global risks outlook has worsened since August. Escalating trade barriers, higher political risks, and worsening financial market conditions could further reduce growth across advanced and emerging economies alike.

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Global Economic Forecasts: Q4 2018

Growth momentum in many of the world’s economies might have peaked in 2018 and global expansion is projected to start cooling down gradually

Global real GDP growth is forecast at 3.8% in 2018 (a pace similar to 2017), declining to 3.5% in 2019-2020.

Forecasts for many advanced economies have been downgraded since our August report following worse than expected performance so far in 2018 and rising trade tensions

Advanced economies’ real GDP growth is anticipated to remain strong in 2018 (at 2.3%) and decline to 1.8-2.0% annually in 2019-2020.

Emerging economies’ outlook has been adversely affected by the worsening global trade and external financing conditions as well as lower investor confidence for countries such as Argentina and Turkey

Emerging economies’ GDP is estimated to grow by 5.0% in 2018 and to slow to 4.8% in 2019-2020.

Overall global risks outlook has worsened since August

Escalating trade barriers, higher political risks, and worsening financial market conditions could further reduce growth across advanced and emerging economies alike.

Overview

Global Economy
Executive Summary
GDP Growth Forecasts – Revisions Over Last Quarter
Inflation Forecasts - Revisions Over Last Quarter
Interest Rate Forecast
Major Forecast Revisions

The US

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Economic Activity, Consumption and Investment
Labour Markets, Income and Private Sector Sentiment
Stock Markets
Interest Rates and Monetary Policy

The Eurozone

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Consumption and Investment
Private Sector Sentiment and Stock Markets
Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions

The UK

GDP and Private Sentiment
Outlook and Brexit Negotiations
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Labour Market and Retail Sales
Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

Economic Activity
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Foreign Trade

China

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Economic Activity and Investment
Private Sector Confidence and Consumption
Stock Markets

Russia

GDP Growth
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Production and Wages
Inflation and Income

Brazil

Economic Activity
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Presidential Election

India

GDP and Components
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenario
Industrial Production and Business Conditions
Inflation and Monetary Policy

Risk Scenarios

Global Risk Scenarios
Scenario Descriptions
Scenario News

notes

Scope and Objectives
Definitions