In the second half of 2019, the global growth outlook has deteriorated, with worsening trade tariff risks, greater geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, worsening business and consumer confidence, and slower output growth. We have downgraded global GDP annual growth estimates to around 3% in 2019-2021 (0.2 percentage points less annually than in Q3 forecasts). The recent global growth slowdown is modest by historical standards.
In the second half of 2019, the global growth outlook has deteriorated, with worsening trade tariff risks, greater geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, worsening business and consumer confidence, and slower output growth.
According to global business surveys, business activity growth and one-year ahead business growth expectations have declined to levels not seen since the beginning of 2016.
We have downgraded global GDP annual growth estimates to around 3% in 2019-2021 (0.2 percentage points less annually than in Q3 forecasts). Advanced economies growth has been downgraded slightly to 1.4-1.6% annually in 2019-2021. Emerging and Developing Economies (EMDE) have been more substantially downgraded to less than 4% growth in 2019, recovering to around 4.5% growth in 2020-2021.
India, Mexico and Germany have had the worst growth downgrades among major economies.
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