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Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q4 2019

Nov 2019

US$1,325

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About This Report

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In the second half of 2019, the global growth outlook has deteriorated, with worsening trade tariff risks, greater geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, worsening business and consumer confidence, and slower output growth. We have downgraded global GDP annual growth estimates to around 3% in 2019-2021 (0.2 percentage points less annually than in Q3 forecasts). The recent global growth slowdown is modest by historical standards.

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Overview

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Global Baseline Outlook

According to global business surveys, business activity growth and one-year ahead business growth expectations have declined to levels not seen since the beginning of 2016.

We have downgraded global GDP annual growth estimates to around 3% in 2019-2021 (0.2 percentage points less annually than in Q3 forecasts). Advanced economies growth has been downgraded slightly to 1.4-1.6% annually in 2019-2021. Emerging and Developing Economies (EMDE) have been more substantially downgraded to less than 4% growth in 2019, recovering to around 4.5% growth in 2020-2021.

India, Mexico and Germany have had the worst growth downgrades among major economies.

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Global Outlook

Global Baseline Outlook

Global Baseline Outlook (2)

Real GDP Annual Growth Forecasts and Revisions from Last Quarter, AE (%, percentage points)

Real GDP Annual Growth Forecasts and Revisions from Last Quarter, EMDE (%, percentage points)

Inflation Quarterly Forecasts

Central Bank Interest Rate Quarterly Forecasts

Global Risks

Global Risk Index Scores and Rankings

The US

General Outlook

Forecast Risks (1)

Forecast Risks (2)

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Private Sector Sentiment and Stock Markets (1)

Private Sector Sentiment and Stock Markets (2)

Labour Markets and Household Income

Interest Rates and Monetary Policy

China

General Outlook

Forecast Risks

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Economic Activity and Private Sector Sentiment (1)

Economic Activity and Private Sector Sentiment (2)

Chinese Consumer Spending Medium-Term Trends (1)

Chinese Consumer Spending Medium-Term Trends (2)

India

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

GDP Components and Unemployment

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

General Outlook

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Foreign Trade

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Eurozone Short-Term Economic Activity and Business Environment:

Private Sector Sentiment:

The UK

General Outlook

Forecast Risks (1)

Forecast Risks (2)

Economic Activity and Private Sector Sentiment

Russia

Economic Activity Growth

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Production and Investment

Inflation, Income and Consumption

Brazil

General Outlook

General Outlook (2)

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Monetary policy and exchange rates

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Global Risk Scenario Descriptions

Definitions

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Global Economic Forecasts: Q4 2019

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Global Baseline Outlook

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Table of Contents

Global Outlook

Global Baseline Outlook

Global Baseline Outlook (2)

Real GDP Annual Growth Forecasts and Revisions from Last Quarter, AE (%, percentage points)

Real GDP Annual Growth Forecasts and Revisions from Last Quarter, EMDE (%, percentage points)

Inflation Quarterly Forecasts

Central Bank Interest Rate Quarterly Forecasts

Global Risks

Global Risk Index Scores and Rankings

The US

General Outlook

Forecast Risks (1)

Forecast Risks (2)

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Private Sector Sentiment and Stock Markets (1)

Private Sector Sentiment and Stock Markets (2)

Labour Markets and Household Income

Interest Rates and Monetary Policy

China

General Outlook

Forecast Risks

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Economic Activity and Private Sector Sentiment (1)

Economic Activity and Private Sector Sentiment (2)

Chinese Consumer Spending Medium-Term Trends (1)

Chinese Consumer Spending Medium-Term Trends (2)

India

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

GDP Components and Unemployment

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

General Outlook

Economic Activity

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Foreign Trade

The Eurozone

General Outlook

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Eurozone Short-Term Economic Activity and Business Environment:

Private Sector Sentiment:

The UK

General Outlook

Forecast Risks (1)

Forecast Risks (2)

Economic Activity and Private Sector Sentiment

Russia

Economic Activity Growth

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Production and Investment

Inflation, Income and Consumption

Brazil

General Outlook

General Outlook (2)

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Monetary policy and exchange rates

Notes

Scope and Objectives

Global Risk Scenario Descriptions

Definitions

Why buy this report?

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