Global Economic Forecasts: Q4 2019

November 2019

In the second half of 2019, the global growth outlook has deteriorated, with worsening trade tariff risks, greater geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, worsening business and consumer confidence, and slower output growth. We have downgraded global GDP annual growth estimates to around 3% in 2019-2021 (0.2 percentage points less annually than in Q3 forecasts). The recent global growth slowdown is modest by historical standards.

USD 1,325
Request More Information

Global Baseline Outlook

In the second half of 2019, the global growth outlook has deteriorated, with worsening trade tariff risks, greater geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, worsening business and consumer confidence, and slower output growth.

According to global business surveys, business activity growth and one-year ahead business growth expectations have declined to levels not seen since the beginning of 2016.

We have downgraded global GDP annual growth estimates to around 3% in 2019-2021 (0.2 percentage points less annually than in Q3 forecasts). Advanced economies growth has been downgraded slightly to 1.4-1.6% annually in 2019-2021. Emerging and Developing Economies (EMDE) have been more substantially downgraded to less than 4% growth in 2019, recovering to around 4.5% growth in 2020-2021.

India, Mexico and Germany have had the worst growth downgrades among major economies.

Global Outlook

Global Baseline Outlook
Global Baseline Outlook (2)
Real GDP Annual Growth Forecasts and Revisions from Last Quarter, AE (%, percentage points)
Real GDP Annual Growth Forecasts and Revisions from Last Quarter, EMDE (%, percentage points)
Inflation Quarterly Forecasts
Central Bank Interest Rate Quarterly Forecasts
Global Risks
Global Risk Index Scores and Rankings

The US

General Outlook
Forecast Risks (1)
Forecast Risks (2)
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Private Sector Sentiment and Stock Markets (1)
Private Sector Sentiment and Stock Markets (2)
Labour Markets and Household Income
Interest Rates and Monetary Policy

China

General Outlook
Forecast Risks
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Economic Activity and Private Sector Sentiment (1)
Economic Activity and Private Sector Sentiment (2)
Chinese Consumer Spending Medium-Term Trends (1)
Chinese Consumer Spending Medium-Term Trends (2)

India

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
GDP Components and Unemployment
Inflation and Monetary Policy

Japan

General Outlook
Economic Activity
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Foreign Trade

The Eurozone

General Outlook
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Eurozone Short-Term Economic Activity and Business Environment:
Private Sector Sentiment:

The UK

General Outlook
Forecast Risks (1)
Forecast Risks (2)
Economic Activity and Private Sector Sentiment

Russia

Economic Activity Growth
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Production and Investment
Inflation, Income and Consumption

Brazil

General Outlook
General Outlook (2)
Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios
Monetary policy and exchange rates

Notes

Scope and Objectives
Global Risk Scenario Descriptions
Definitions
Share:

NEW REPORT GUARANTEE

If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE! Home Page