The aggregate global real GDP growth baseline forecast has remained roughly unchanged since Q3 2020, with a projected contraction of 4.7% in 2020, followed by 5.1% growth in 2021. The end of 2020 is seeing the emergence of regional second waves especially in Europe and North America. The baseline forecast assumes these second waves are contained in Q4 2020, and widespread vaccine deployment around mid-2021.
This report comes in PPT.
The aggregate global real GDP growth baseline forecast has remained roughly unchanged since Q3 2020, with a projected contraction of 4.7% in 2020 (with a plausible range of 4.2-5.2% decline), followed by 5.1% growth in 2021 (with a plausible range of 3.5-6.5%).
However, advanced economy estimates for 2020 growth have improved on average by one percentage point, mainly due to faster economic recoveries in Q3 and a more relaxed attitude towards pandemic restrictions in the US. In contrast, the overall real GDP growth for 2020 in developing economies has been downgraded by 0.7 percentage points, despite improving outlooks for Brazil and China. This reflects the much worse than expected effects of the pandemic in India.
The end of 2020 is seeing the emergence of regional second waves especially in Europe and North America. The Eurozone and UK economies have had to resort to new lockdown measures to control fast-rising infection rates. The baseline forecast assumes these second waves are contained in Q4 2020, and widespread vaccine deployment around mid-2021.
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