Global Economic Outlook: Impact of War in Ukraine

March 2022

The global economy is expected to see slower growth and higher inflation amid the war in Ukraine and the imposition of economic sanctions on Russia. The main impact channels would be accelerated energy and commodity prices, disruptions in the global supply chains and reduced business and consumer confidence. Beyond global spillovers, the depth of the impact varies among economies, with the Eurozone likely to be most affected given its relatively high exposure to Russian energy supply.

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Scope
Key findings
War in Ukraine causes significant downgrade in global economic outlook
Substantial inflation increases expected amid rising economic uncertainty
War-related supply shocks add to already strong inflationary pressures
Risks remain tilted to the downside
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from pre-war estimates
Inflation forecasts and revisions from pre-war estimates
US: Moderate downgrades in economic growth forecasts but with increasing risks
US: Inflation is set to remain high, uncertainty has increased and consumer confidence is low
China: Government’s 5.5% economic growth target for 2022 will be hard to attain
China: Economic activity better than expected in early 2022 but risks have increased
Eurozone: Economic outlook has deteriorated amid rising uncertainty
Eurozone: Inflation to increase further due to war impacts, while risks have increased
The war in Ukraine is set to have significant impacts on economies and consumers
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