Global Economic Risks and Opportunities in 2017 and Beyond

2016 was a low point for the global economy

2016 marked the lowest year of economic growth since the financial crisis driven by weak performances in many major emerging and developed economies.

In 2017 growth will strengthen

Global growth will pick up in 2017 to reach 3.4%, and it will continue to strengthen slightly in the medium-term. However, it will still remain significantly below pre-financial crisis levels.

Mixed medium-term outlook for advanced economies

2017 shows a mixed performance for major advanced economies with the Trump presidency and Brexit weighing on the outlook in the medium-term.

Emerging markets to strengthen in medium-term

In the medium-term, all emerging regions will strengthen – with the exception of emerging Asia. Its growth will decelerate slightly – because of the continuing slowdown in China. Nevertheless, emerging Asia will remain the world’s fastest-growing region.

Risks are on the downside with political stability a key threat

Key risks to the global economy include: the Trump presidency, Brexit, advanced economy stagnation, weak global trade and the threat of a Chinese hard landing.

Opportunities are also present – mainly in emerging markets

Key opportunities include: the stabilisation of commodity prices, the chance of a Trump fiscal boom, India’s strong performance and the possibility that China will surprise on the upside.