Global FMCG Trends in 2009 and 2010: Legacy of the Downturn

September 2010

When the global recession reached its peak in 2009, which everyday items did consumers cut back on the most, which – if any – emerged from the crisis unscathed, and which were predicted to be the first to recover as conditions improved in 2010? This new global report examines the latest figures from Euromonitor International’s global database to identify the winners and losers among fast moving consumer goods (FMCGs) sectors during the downturn of 2009 and into 2010.

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What this report includes

  • Top-level strategic analysis of how major consumer trends will influence global markets
  • Consumer insight
  • Impact across all relevant consumer markets
  • Unique graphics and case studies
  • Key market snapshots
  • Accompanying presentation to synthesise main findings
     

Why buy this report

  • Identify factors driving change now and in the future
  • Understand motivation
  • Forward-looking outlook
  • Briefings and presentation should provoke lively discussion at senior level
  • Take a step back from micro trends
  • Get up to date estimates and comment

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Key Demand Factors Across FMCG Markets
Summary 1 Drivers and Constraints Across FMCG Markets in 2010
Note on Currency of Data
Market Trends: Winners and Losers in 2009 and 2010
Table 1 Winners and Losers of 2009 by Value, with Growth Prospects for 2010
Trends in Key Markets
Summary 2 Winning Markets: Top Three Growth Markets by Country (Value) 2009

ECONOMIC PICTURE

Boom leads to bust Recovery underway Emerging markets pull through Sovereign debt remains a threat Consumer confidence on the up Table 2 Historic/Forecast GDP Growth in Key Markets 2008-2010

KEY DRIVERS ACROSS FMCG MARKETS

The Search for Value
Frugality becomes the norm Private label gains credibility Shoppers become more agressive
Health and Environmental Awareness
Greener habits prove hard to break Health and food safety remain a priority Organic sales dip in 2009 but are quick to recover Chart 1 Global Sales of Organic Food and Drink 2008-2010 Sustainability – a focus for differentiation Organic beauty Eco-friendly tissue/hygiene and home care
Changing Demographics
Ageing populations affect lifestyles Chart 2 % Population Aged 65+ by Region 2004/2009/2014 Fewer children impacts demand for baby products Chart 3 Number of Live Births 2008-2010
Cocooning
Eating-in benefits packaged food sectors Beauty at home
Development of Modern Retail Formats
Discounters become more popular Wal-Mart appeals to new consumer base Supermarkets drive growth in emerging markets
Impact of Regulatory Measures
The state’s influence Health claims under scrutiny Switches spur OTC market Tightening of anti-tobacco laws

OVERVIEW OF FMCG MARKETS

The Global Picture
No market escapes downturn Packaged food remains stable Tobacco: a surprise winner Health takes priority Outlook good for tissue and hygiene, and pet food Beauty and personal care, and packaged foods reach maturity Drinks markets face price pressure Chart 4 Retail Market Sizes by Value 2008-2010 Table 3 Retail Trends by Broad Market 2004-2014
Trends in Key Markets
Developed markets worst hit in 2009 China, India, Brazil perform better Table 4 Value Trends by Market and by Country 2009 and 2010

PACKAGED FOOD

Competition Stifles Value Growth
Babies’ Needs Come First
Meal Replacements Replace Slimming Pills
Noodles Sales up, but Pasta Down
Indulgence Foods Suffer Reduced Spending
Largest Sectors Reach Saturation
Milk Decline Drags Down Dairy Market
Chart 5 Packaged Food: Broad Sector Sizes 2008-2010 Table 5 Packaged Food: Value Trends by Sector & Subsector 2004-2014
Trends in Key Markets
US remains stable, but Japan hit by deflation BRIC markets see mixed results UK takes the lead in Western Europe Chart 6 Packaged Food: Key Markets and Growth 2010

HOT DRINKS

Private Label Puts Pressure on Prices
Retail Sales Boosted by On-trade Coffee Culture
Green Tea and Plant-based Drinks Surf Health Wave
Chart 7 Hot Drinks: Broad Sector Sizes 2008-2010 Table 6 Hot Drinks: Value Trends by Sector & Subsector 2004-2014
Trends in Key Markets
US and Japan drive growth Chinese market fuelled by premiumisation Chart 8 Hot Drinks: Key Markets and Growth 2010

PET FOOD

Pets prioritised during downturn Product recalls prompt demand for premium brands Dry foods benefit from convenience factor Pet humanisation will drive premiumisation Chart 9 Pet Food: Broad Sector Sizes 2008-2010 Table 7 Pet Food: Value Trends by Sector & Subsector 2005-2015
Trends in Key Markets
Unit price increases underpin US growth Japanese market fuelled by niche segments India offers strong potential Chart 10 Pet Food: Key Markets and Growth 2010

ALCOHOLIC DRINKS

Market Suffers Unhealthy Image
Cider Enjoys Boom
Beer Boosted by Growth in Low Alcohol Varieties
Down-Trading Impacts Spirits and Wine
Champagne and RTDs Out of Fashion
Future Growth Will be Modest
Chart 11 Alcoholic Drinks: Broad Sector Sizes 2008-2010 Table 8 Alcoholic Drinks: Value Trends by Sector & Subsector 2004-2014 Table 9 Alcoholic Drinks: Volume Trends by Sector 2004-2014
Trends in Key Markets
Global downturn masks growth in core markets Healthier products fuel growth in China Japanese market value suppressed in 2010 Anti-alcohol campaigns impact Russian market Chart 12 Alcoholic Drinks: Key Markets and Growth 2010

SOFT DRINKS

Price Pressure Causes Slump in Soft Drinks Value
Asian Speciality Drinks Increase Popularity in China
Carbonates Suffer from Unhealthy Image
Return to Tap Water for Cash-Strapped Consumers
Healthier Drinks Hold Biggest Potential
Chart 13 Soft Drinks: Broad Sector Sizes 2008-2010 Table 10 Soft Drinks: Value Trends by Sector & Subsector 2004-2014 Table 11 Soft Drinks: Volume Trends by Sector 2004-2014
Trends in Key Markets
US market saturated Japan fiercely competitive Western Europe bows to price pressure Chart 14 Soft Drinks: Key Markets and Growth 2010

BEAUTY AND PERSONAL CARE

Switch from Premium to Masstige Depresses Market Value
Babies Continue to be Pampered
Lipstick Effect Boosts Skin Care
Steady Demand for Bathroom Essentials
Colourants Benefit from Innovation
Nails and Eyelashes Receive the Most Attention
Premium Fragrances Seen as Decadent
Chart 15 Beauty and Personal Care: Broad Sector Sizes 2008-2010 Table 12 Beauty and Personal Care: Value Trends by Sector & Subsector 2004-2014
Trends in Key Markets
Masstige and private label put pressure on US market value Brazilian market poised for growth Chinese men turn metrosexual Indians increase interest in personal hygiene Developed markets set to recover in 2010 Chart 16 Beauty and Personal Care: Key Markets and Growth 2010

CONSUMER HEALTH

Rise in Generics Dampens Value Growth
Prevention Better than Cure?
New Regulations Affect Certain Categories
Ageing Populations Boost Demand for Digestive Remedies
New Categories Grow From Small Base
Chart 17 Consumer Health: Broad Sector Sizes 2008-2010 Table 13 Consumer Health: Value Trends by Sector & Subsector 2004-2014
Trends in Key Markets
US and Japanese consumers turn to preventative health Emerging markets on the brink of expansion European market boosted by alli launch Chart 18 Consumer Health: Key Markets and Growth 2010

HOME CARE

Market Hit by Housing Crisis...
...But Hygiene Gains Importance During Swine Flu Crisis
New Value Brands Compete with Private Label
Green Technology Drives Growth
Chart 19 Home Care: Broad Sector Sizes 2008-2010 Table 14 Home Care: Value Trends by Sector & Subsector 2004-2014
Trends in Key Markets
Emerging markets offer growth opportunities Innovation boosts value in Japan and China Brazil and Russia set for growth in 2010 Price wars impact UK market Chart 20 Home Care: Key Markets and Growth 2010

TISSUE AND HYGIENE

Private Label Assumes Greater Role
Incontinence Loses Taboo
Wipes Perceived as Unnecessary Luxury
Innovation to Drive Furture Growth
Chart 21 Tissue and Hygiene: Broad Sector Sizes 2008-2010 Table 15 Tissue and Hygiene: Value Trends by Sector & Subsector 2004-2014
Trends in Key Markets
US and Japanese markets remain flat in 2010 Greater awareness of hygiene fuels sales in BRICs 2010 looks more promising for Europe Chart 22 Tissue and Hygiene: Key Markets and Growth 2010

TOBACCO

Cigarettes Resist Downturn
Smoking Prevalence Still Rising in Emerging Markets
Cigars and High Tar Cigarettes Gain Share in 2009
Smokeless Cigarettes are a Hit in Tokyo
Chart 23 Tobacco: Broad Sector Sizes 2008-2010 Chart 24 Volume Sales of Cigarettes 2008-2010 Table 16 Tobacco: Value Trends by Sector & Subsector 2004-2014
Trends in Key Markets
China drives global growth US volume sales fall, but value driven by tax hikes Female smokers drive premiumisation trend in Japan UK tobacco companies target youngsters via festival promotions Shift towards factory-made cigarettes boosts sales in BRICs Chart 25 Tobacco: Key Markets and Growth 2010
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