Global Inflation Tracker: Q2 2022

May 2022

The report examines inflation level and drivers globally and in the key countries. Global inflation is forecast to accelerate due to higher energy and commodity prices, disruptions in supply chains and weaker business confidence. Impact varies between the countries, with Eurozone likely to be the most affected given its reliance on energy imports. Increasing prices are predicted to undermine consumer purchasing power.

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Key Findings

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increases inflationary pressures

Under the baseline scenario, global inflation is still forecast to reach 7.9% in 2022 and stand at 5.0% in 2023. Commodity price increases and supply disruptions due to the war in Ukraine are forecast to push global manufacturer and consumer prices.

Eurozone is the most vulnerable to energy price inflation

Countries with greater energy dependency, such as Germany, Spain and Italy, will feel higher inflationary effects in 2022. This in turn is expected to increase inflationary pressures in the Eurozone. Consumers and businesses in the Eurozone will increasingly feel the squeeze of the rising prices during 2022-2023. Higher prices will also add more pressures on the profit margins of the businesses.

Downside risks remain significant

Higher volatility in commodity markets, supply disruptions and transportation problems are forecast to disrupt global supply chains and inflate input prices in 2022. Potential embargo on Russia’s energy would also result in energy price shock and impact global B2B, transportation and logistics sectors. At the same time, tight labour markets in the developed economies and lockdown measures in China will continue to inflate the cost base and disrupt supply of input materials.

Introduction

Scope
Key findings

Global Outlook

Economic uncertainty adds to the substantial inflation increases
Supply chain problems and rising energy prices drive producer price growth
Rising commodity prices affect B2B sector
Key risks for inflation in 2022-2023
Inflation forecasts: Q2 2022

Consumer Purchasing Power

Inflation growth undermines consumer spending power
Retail sales start to show subdued growth in 2022
Median online price changes for most consumer goods categories
Consumers face higher spending on essential goods

Country Insights

USA: Tight labour market and rising energy prices add to the inflation surge
China: Lockdown measures cap inflation, but risks remain
France: Moderating demand and energy sector regulations to help cap inflation
Germany: Rising energy prices to drive price increases
Italy: High dependence on gas drives inflation surge
Spain: Rising commodity and energy prices accelerate price growth
UK: Commodity price increases and relaxation of pent-up demand drive inflation surge
Japan: Weak domestic demand caps inflation growth, but risks remain
Brazil: Rising commodity prices fuels inflation surge
India: Rising food and fuel prices drive inflation

Conclusion

Inflationary pressures to remain high
Key country insights
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