China’s urban areas will top global growth for consumer expenditure between 2017 and 2030, backed by the country’s significant economic and social progress. Other developments which will shape future consumer spending in cities and urban areas over 2017-2030 include the growing urban ageing population, which is fuelling healthcare spending, the rise of Kenya’s middle class, and the expected surge of alcohol and tobacco consumption in developing cities.
China’s cities will be the driving force of urban consumer expenditure in the near-to-mid future. According to Euromonitor International, over 2017-2030, urban consumers in China will contribute USD3.4 trillion (constant prices) in spending, just edging the US, with USD3.1 billion, and far outstripping growth in India (USD744 billion).
In light of population ageing, which has spread across developed markets and is progressively manifesting itself in some developing regions, demand for healthcare is anticipated to surge. Globally, US cities are set to be the main drivers of healthcare spending between 2017 and 2030, partly due to the rising cost of health insurance.
Kenya’s economic growth is advancing incomes and helping to establish a thriving and spendthrift middle class. Nairobi, Kenya’s capital and largest city, is forecast to see a CAGR in consumer expenditure of 7% over 2017-2030 –one of the fastest rates of any city worldwide. However, issues related job growth, skills development and infrastructural investment, among others, will limit the degree of middle class expansion in Kenya’s cities.
Despite the ascent and dominance of emerging cities, cities in the US will still see the largest absolute growth in real per capita consumer expenditure over 2017-2030. This signifies the continued dominance of the US population in being avid contributors to consumption and economic growth.
Emerging cities are set to be largest growing consumers of alcoholic drinks and tobacco over 2017-2030, according to Euromonitor International’s Passport Cities data. Jakarta is set to be the biggest growth market, with consumer expenditure on alcoholic drinks and tobacco increasing by USD6.4 billion at constant 2017 prices.
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