The global economic outlook continues to improve in Q2 2021, though a two-speed recovery is taking shape as developed economies are set to bounce back quicker while the slow vaccine rollout in developing countries is delaying their recovery. The main downside risk is the emergence of more contagious, and potentially vaccine-resistant, COVID-19 variants. This series of quarterly reports helps businesses track and predict when activity in key markets will recover in order to plan accordingly.
The global economic outlook continues to improve in Q2 2021, due primarily to a more positive outlook in developed countries, where rapid vaccine deployment, a significant reduction in COVID-19 infection cases and strong fiscal stimulus measures (particularly in the US) are expected to lead to a stronger economic rebound in the second half of 2021.
While developed countries and some developing countries are likely to reach vaccination rates sufficient for herd immunity in the second half of 2021, most developing countries are not expected to achieve herd immunity before the second half of 2022, thus delaying their recovery.
The US is set to have witnessed the strongest recovery in Q2 2021 across major economies, driven by surging consumer confidence and a strong rebound in economic activity.
India is the only major country which is expected to have recorded a decline in the Recovery Index score in Q2 2021, relative to the previous quarter. The number of COVID-19 cases in the country rose rapidly during April-May of 2021.
The biggest downside risk to the global recovery is the emergence and spread of potentially vaccine-resistant variants of the coronavirus especially in developing countries where vaccination rollout has been slow.
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