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Global Recovery Tracker: Q2 2021

June 2021

The global economic outlook continues to improve in Q2 2021, though a two-speed recovery is taking shape as developed economies are set to bounce back quicker while the slow vaccine rollout in developing countries is delaying their recovery. The main downside risk is the emergence of more contagious, and potentially vaccine-resistant, COVID-19 variants. This series of quarterly reports helps businesses track and predict when activity in key markets will recover in order to plan accordingly.

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Key findings

Improved global outlook, driven by a stronger rebound in developed countries

The global economic outlook continues to improve in Q2 2021, due primarily to a more positive outlook in developed countries, where rapid vaccine deployment, a significant reduction in COVID-19 infection cases and strong fiscal stimulus measures (particularly in the US) are expected to lead to a stronger economic rebound in the second half of 2021.

Developing countries are expected to experience slower recovery

While developed countries and some developing countries are likely to reach vaccination rates sufficient for herd immunity in the second half of 2021, most developing countries are not expected to achieve herd immunity before the second half of 2022, thus delaying their recovery.

The US is the best performer on Euromonitor’s Recovery Index in Q2

The US is set to have witnessed the strongest recovery in Q2 2021 across major economies, driven by surging consumer confidence and a strong rebound in economic activity.

On the other hand, India is the worst performer

India is the only major country which is expected to have recorded a decline in the Recovery Index score in Q2 2021, relative to the previous quarter. The number of COVID-19 cases in the country rose rapidly during April-May of 2021.

New coronavirus variants pose risks to the recovery

The biggest downside risk to the global recovery is the emergence and spread of potentially vaccine-resistant variants of the coronavirus especially in developing countries where vaccination rollout has been slow.

 

Introduction

Scope
Key findings
Key events so far (1)
Key events so far (2)
Overall outlook has improved
Uncertainty continues to decline, but remains significant

Euromonitor Recovery Index

Recovery Index
Global overview for Recovery Index in Q2 2021
Index ranking based on Q2 2021 scores: 1 to 10
Index ranking based on Q2 2021 scores: 11 to 20
Index ranking based on Q2 2021 scores: 21 to 30
Index ranking based on Q2 2021 scores: 31 to 40
Index ranking based on Q2 2021 scores: 41 to 48
Recovery landscape in Q2 2021

Overview of Major Economies

Accelerating vaccine rollout supports global recovery
The US and China lead the way in economic recovery
Labour market situation improves gradually
Consumer spending recovers thanks to growing economic intensity
Retail sales are driven by lifting of lockdown measures
Confidence grows as new cases fall and employment rises

Country Insights

Brazil: Consumption recovery is set back as vaccination stagnates
China: Rebounding global trade stimulates further economic growth
Germany: A considerable improvement from the previous quarter
India: Escalating virus cases over Q2 puts strain on economy
Italy: Accelerated recovery from the COVID-19 impact
Japan: Vaccination and Olympic Games to lift consumption in Q3
US: Despite vaccination slowdown, recovery maintains solid pace
UK: Consumer confidence recovers as virus uncertainty declines

Conclusion

Improved overall global outlook, with two-speed recovery
Key country insights
Outlook

Appendix: Index Methodology

Recovery Index methodology
Recovery Index indicators and weights
COVID-19 global scenario assumptions and definitions
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