Global Risk Report: 2019

Strategy Briefing

About This Report

Jul 2019

This report introduces Euromonitor International’s Global Risk Index (GRI). The GRI measures the expected global GDP impact of a risk scenario when the global economy is hit by negative shocks. It allows multinational organisations to rank and prioritise the main global macroeconomic risks. The GRI highlights three key adverse scenarios for 2019-2020: A Global Downturn, an Emerging Markets Slowdown and a Global Crisis.

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Global Risk Report: 2019

Key Findings

This report introduces Euromonitor International’s Global Risk Index (GRI).

The Global Risk Index (GRI) quantifies major global macroeconomic risks and ranks them by their expected 3-year global GDP impact, conditional on a global downside shock. This allows business decision makers to rank major global risks and prioritise those that are more significant for business and financial stress-testing at the global level.

The GRI complements Euromonitor’s Country Risk Index, which plays a similar role for country level analysis.

The Global Risk Report is a partner piece to Euromonitor’s Macro Model forecasts, using global scenarios as presented in the Macro Model dashboard.

Euromonitor’s Macro Model (EMM) is a quarterly forecast model for the global economy. It is a global model, with countries simultaneously interacting through trade and aggregate demand spillovers. The EMM currently produces Real GDP Growth, Unemployment, Inflation and Interest Rate forecasts for more than 50 countries.

Global Risk Index Introduction

Scope of the Global Risk Index and report
Baseline forecasts are just one possible scenario
Planning for uncertainty: Using macroeconomic scenarios in market research
Introducing the Global Risk Index
The Global Risk Index scores and rankings

Baseline Global Economic Outlook

Global baseline forecast
Positive factors in the global outlook
Negative factors in the global outlook (1)
Negative factors in the global outlook (2)

Top Five Global Risks

Global Downturn
Emerging Markets Slowdown
Global Crisis
China Hard Landing
Eurozone Recession

Methodological Appendix

Global Risk Index: Technical definition
Scenario descriptions