This report introduces Euromonitor International’s Global Risk Index (GRI). The GRI measures the expected global GDP impact of a risk scenario when the global economy is hit by negative shocks. It allows multinational organisations to rank and prioritise the main global macroeconomic risks. The GRI highlights three key adverse scenarios for 2019-2020: A Global Downturn, an Emerging Markets Slowdown and a Global Crisis.
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The Global Risk Index (GRI) quantifies major global macroeconomic risks and ranks them by their expected 3-year global GDP impact, conditional on a global downside shock. This allows business decision makers to rank major global risks and prioritise those that are more significant for business and financial stress-testing at the global level.
The Global Risk Report is a partner piece to Euromonitor’s Macro Model forecasts, using global scenarios as presented in the Macro Model dashboard.
Euromonitor’s Macro Model (EMM) is a quarterly forecast model for the global economy. It is a global model, with countries simultaneously interacting through trade and aggregate demand spillovers. The EMM currently produces Real GDP Growth, Unemployment, Inflation and Interest Rate forecasts for more than 50 countries.