Global Tobacco: Key Findings Part 1 Cigarettes – The Ongoing Quest for Value

July 2015

Despite a range of challenges, declines in key markets and an apparent approaching storm of high excise rates, strict regulation and viable alternatives, 2014 was a steady year for the global cigarettes market; a better one, indeed than the previous year. However, as global prevalence continues to fall and regulation targets cash-generating innovation, focus is on the strategies manufacturers are employing in the struggle to grow value and on what form the next generation of products will take.

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Cigarettes volume declines

On the back of a marginally better volume performance than in 2013, 5.7 trillion cigarettes were consumed in 2014, Excluding China, volumes declined by 2.5% as strong growth in major markets such as Indonesia and Turkey was balanced by difficulties in Russia and Vietnam.

Cigarettes value grows

Strong pack price growth contributed to healthy cigarette value growth in 2014, at its highest rate since 2011. Indeed, excluding China, like-for-like value growth was over 4.8%, double the equivalent rate in 2013 and significantly higher than in 2012. Eastern Europe saw value swell by 13%.

Average pack price increases

2014 saw the third consecutive year of average pack price growth with the global average reaching US$2.63. All regions saw growth, led by Latin America and Eastern Europe but sluggishness in Western Europe persisted, seeing growth of 2.9% held back by high levels of taxation and regulation.

Lack of clarity on impact of e-cigarette use

While it is clear that vapour products, in particular e-cigarette tank systems, are growing in popularity rapidly there is distinctly less clarity about the full impact of the category on traditional cigarettes. E-cigarette users still comprise a minority of smokers in most markets and fewer still could be regarded as daily consistent users.



Key Findings

The tobacco market in 2014
Key drivers of global cigarettes
Headlines for 2014
Category growth comparisons over 2009-2014: Pipe the big mover
Tobacco products market outlook over 2014-2019
Vaping may be having a substantial impact on cigarette volumes

Geographic focus

All about price: Regional cigarette market analysis over 2009-2014
Where cigarettes growth came from in 2014
China continues to lead the way but some clouds emerge
US: Short to medium term looking more stable for cigarettes
Russia: Major disruption as excise taxes and tobacco control bite
Indonesia: Powering ahead as world’s second largest market
Norway: A collapsing cigarettes market

Smoking Population

Where the smokers are: Population analysis by region
Greatest prevalence declines seen in Eastern Europe
A tale of two prevalences : France and Hungary

Illicit Trade

Illicit penetration: Regional comparisons 2014
Regional trends in illicit trade: Historic
Regional trends in illicit trade: Forecast
Poland case study: Stemming the tide
Push to strengthen fight against illicit through the Protocol

Legislation and Price

Legislative restrictions on the global tobacco industry
UK imposes plain packaging as threat to industry heightens
Thailand case study: What impact does legislation have?
Cigarettes: Global price analysis
Cigarettes: Pricing outlook
Price band forecast displays the impact of price and regulation

Companies and Brands

Top 10 cigarettes companies: How they performed in 2014
Latest mergers and acquisitions activity
Migrations emerging as a key feature of brand strategy
Tobacco manufacturers step up presence in vapour products
Brands: How they performed in 2014
Innovation and brand activity
LD holds steady to move forward
Marlboro 2.0 seeing results
Rothmans continues its upward trajectory


Virginia takes firm lead in blends with problems ahead for menthol
Flavour capsules making gains but potential may have peaked
A tar revolution and steady growth for slimmer formats


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