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Strategy Briefing

Global Tobacco: Key Findings Part 1 – Tobacco Overview, Cigarettes and the Future

Jul 2014

US$1,325

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About This Report

New Report Guarantee

If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE!

As one of the world’s most valuable fast moving consumer goods industries, totalling US$800 billion globally, the tobacco industry is at a crossroads with seven of its top 10 global markets posting volume declines. In many, particularly developed, markets smokers are consuming increasing lower value products. The challenge for the industry is to manage volume decline, continue to generate meaningful value growth and develop the next generation of nicotine or tobacco product.

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Overview

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Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.

Cigarettes volume declines

Globally, 5.7 trillion cigarettes were consumed in 2013, representing an unprecedented decline of 1.4% on 2012 with slower growth in China (which added only 40 billion sticks) proving insufficient to compensate for ongoing decline in the rest of the world. Excluding China, volumes declined by 3.7%.

Average pack price rises

The global average pack price bounced back slightly in 2013, with a 4.7% increase, larger than in 2012. This was thanks to a marginal recovery in pricing in Western Europe. Australia saw a slight reduction in average price on the back of plain packaging, while MEA is now the lowest priced region.

Cigarette value sales growth

World cigarette value sales growth accelerated slightly in 2013, up from 2.7% in 2012, although duty paid value growth was outpaced by illicit trade volume growth. Eastern Europe and Asia Pacific (primarily through China) drove growth, with all other regions seeing subdued but positive growth.

Illicit trade volume growth

Illicit trade grew by 4.7% in 2013 (up from 1.3% in 2012) to reach 570 billion sticks. This represents a penetration rate of 9.5%. However, this conceals a stark global divide. Illicit trade continues to decline in China and, excluding China, world illicit trade grew by 8.7%, with a share of 12.3%, fuelled by continuing significant increases in Europe, Russia and the Philippines.

Smoking tobacco value

World RYO volumes grew by 1.8% in 2012, down from 3.5% in 2012, registering growth in all but two regions. Eastern Europe once again led growth with 11% volume and 19% value growth. Pipe tobacco again grew strongly, by 4% for the second year in a row, driven by the MEA.

What this report includes

Top-level strategic analysis of how major consumer trends will influence global markets
Consumer insight
Impact across all relevant consumer markets
Unique graphics and case studies
Key market snapshots
Accompanying presentation to synthesise main findings

Why buy this report

Identify factors driving change now and in the future
Understand motivation
Forward-looking outlook
Briefings and presentation should provoke lively discussion at senior level
Take a step back from micro trends
Get up to date estimates and comment

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Introduction

Scope

Key Findings

The tobacco market in 2013

Headlines for 2013

Tobacco products market outlook

All about price: Regional cigarette market analysis 2008-13

Illicit penetration: Regional comparisons 2013

Cigarette Overview

Category growth comparisons 2008-2013: OTP keeps up pace

Tar in cigarettes: Mixed picture

Tobacco blends and menthol

Flavour capsules making gains in all regions

Where cigarettes growth came from in 2013

Country Focus

China: Where 40 billion extra sticks represents a disappointment

US: Emergence of e-cigarettes amplifying long-term decline

Russia: Volumes at risk from tax increases but value will rise

Indonesia: Last of the growth markets

Brazil: Grappling with the illicit trade

UAE: Population factors feeding growth in duty paid and illicit

Smoking Population

Where the smokers are: Population analysis by region

Greatest prevalence declines seen in Eastern Europe

Illicit Trade

Regional trends in illicit: Historic

Regional trends in illicit trade: Forecast

An entirely home-grown domestic issue in the Philippines

Push to strengthen fight against illicit through Protocol

Legislation

Legislative restrictions on the global tobacco industry

Recent legislative activity: Focus on developed markets

Revised EU Tobacco P roducts D irective passed

No domino effect yet, but threat of plain packaging lingers

Uncertainty over e-cigarette regulation rumbles on

Pricing Trends

Cigarettes: Global price analysis

Cigarettes: Pricing outlook

Price band forecast displays the impact of price and regulation

Impaired volumes in developed markets bode ill for pricing

Corporate Activity

Top 10 companies: How they performed in 2013

Reynolds snaps up Lorillard but only holds onto Newport

Cost management of ever greater importance

Brands: How they performed 2013

Innovation and brand activity

L&M: PMI’s quiet success story

Winston: Now the undisputed global number two brand

Dunhill: Best performing top 10 brand in 2013

E-cigarettes

What is the state of the e-cigarettes market today?

Nicotine delivery devices: Latest

E-cigarette regulation worldwide, a summary

E- cigarettess

No surfeit of optimism in e-cigarette forecasts

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Global Tobacco: Key Findings Part 1 – Tobacco Overview, Cigarettes and the Future

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Cigarettes volume declines

Average pack price rises

Cigarette value sales growth

Illicit trade volume growth

Smoking tobacco value

What this report includes

Why buy this report

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Introduction

Scope

Key Findings

The tobacco market in 2013

Headlines for 2013

Tobacco products market outlook

All about price: Regional cigarette market analysis 2008-13

Illicit penetration: Regional comparisons 2013

Cigarette Overview

Category growth comparisons 2008-2013: OTP keeps up pace

Tar in cigarettes: Mixed picture

Tobacco blends and menthol

Flavour capsules making gains in all regions

Where cigarettes growth came from in 2013

Country Focus

China: Where 40 billion extra sticks represents a disappointment

US: Emergence of e-cigarettes amplifying long-term decline

Russia: Volumes at risk from tax increases but value will rise

Indonesia: Last of the growth markets

Brazil: Grappling with the illicit trade

UAE: Population factors feeding growth in duty paid and illicit

Smoking Population

Where the smokers are: Population analysis by region

Greatest prevalence declines seen in Eastern Europe

Illicit Trade

Regional trends in illicit: Historic

Regional trends in illicit trade: Forecast

An entirely home-grown domestic issue in the Philippines

Push to strengthen fight against illicit through Protocol

Legislation

Legislative restrictions on the global tobacco industry

Recent legislative activity: Focus on developed markets

Revised EU Tobacco P roducts D irective passed

No domino effect yet, but threat of plain packaging lingers

Uncertainty over e-cigarette regulation rumbles on

Pricing Trends

Cigarettes: Global price analysis

Cigarettes: Pricing outlook

Price band forecast displays the impact of price and regulation

Impaired volumes in developed markets bode ill for pricing

Corporate Activity

Top 10 companies: How they performed in 2013

Reynolds snaps up Lorillard but only holds onto Newport

Cost management of ever greater importance

Brands: How they performed 2013

Innovation and brand activity

L&M: PMI’s quiet success story

Winston: Now the undisputed global number two brand

Dunhill: Best performing top 10 brand in 2013

E-cigarettes

What is the state of the e-cigarettes market today?

Nicotine delivery devices: Latest

E-cigarette regulation worldwide, a summary

E- cigarettess

No surfeit of optimism in e-cigarette forecasts

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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