Global Trends 2009 - What is the World Coming to?

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Economy

Consumer Trends

Corporate Trends

Technology Trends

Major Markets

Future Outlook

Planning Future Scenarios

OVERVIEW – HOW DID WE GET THERE?

The Lead In

The Shocks of Late 2008

Complex Financial Instruments

Riding the Rollercoaster

ECONOMIC TRENDS AND DRIVERS

Chart 1 Global Economic Trends and Drivers 2009

The First Global Recession?

Capitalism in Question?

Concepts and Confidence

Chart 2 Consumer and Government Spending per Household, Major Markets 2008 (US$’000)

Two Shades of Middle Class

Savers and Spenders

Chart 3 Savings Ratio (% of Disposable Income Saved), Major Markets 2008

Lessons from History?

1980s Japanese Bubble

Risk of Anti-Globalisation

Recession, Depression, Slump? Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation?

Panicking Bankers?

CONSUMER TRENDS AND DRIVERS

Chart 4 Global Consumer Trends and Drivers 2009

The Mood has Changed

Now the Going is Tough, Will the Tough Keep Shopping?

Confidence and Strategies for Survival

The Quest for Value...

...and the Death of Bling?

Designer Investment

The Lipstick Effect

Table 1 Trends in Cosmetics and Toiletries Spending, Major Markets 2004-2008

Frugalistas and Voucheristas

Mindful Spending

Playing at Thrift?

Or Taking Thrift Seriously?

Green Thrift

Even the Rich are Changing

Banking Levels Vary

Chart 5 Banked Population as % of Total Population, Major Markets 2008

The Impact of Unemployment

Table 2 Unemployed Population, Major Markets (2008 Actual, 2009-2013 Forecast)

Unemployment and the Young, the Old, Women and the Poor

Table 3 Unemployment Among the Young (Unemployed as % of Economically Active), Major Markets 2008

Homeworkers and the Rise of the Multi-Job Lifestyle

Chart 6 Employment by Type, Major Markets 2008

Protectionism

Chart 7 Net Migration, Major Markets 2008

Falling Remittances

Chart 8 Remittance Inflows, Major Markets 2008

Urbanisation in Developing Markets

Where is Home?

Cocooning

Loneliness Looms

Lifetime Learning for ‘Me PLC’

Home Arrangements Change?

Table 4 Household Size, Major Markets 2008

Beginning of the End of the ‘Burb?

The Appeal of Age

Table 5 Index of Ageing (Number Aged 65+ Divided by Those 0-14 Years), Major Markets 2004-2008

CORPORATE TRENDS AND DRIVERS

Chart 9 Corporate Trends and Drivers 2009

From Values to Value

From Visionary CEO to Masterful CFO

Rising Regulation

Risk Aversion

Customer Insight Needed

Marginal Revenue

Low Inventories and Delivery Pressure Points

Time for R&D

New Media, New Means of Communication

Conversation or Communications

Food as the Bright Spot (So Far)

Table 6 Trends in Food Consumption Sales Volumes, Major Markets 2004-2008

H&W – a Core Growth Strategy Shared by all the ‘Big Guns’

Recession is a Threat - But a Manageable One

Structural Changes

Tough Times for Retailers

Now See What Customer Loyalty Really Means

TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND DRIVERS

Chart 10 Global Technology Trends And Drivers 2009

Learning from the Dot Com Crash

Online Essentials

The World is a’Twitter with Excitement

Rise of Content – Existentialism to Escapism

Blurring Screens – Rising Online Downtime

Chart 11 Percentage Leisure Time Spent Online, Major Markets 2008

‘Look at Me’

Networks – Social, Financial and Technological – and New Jobs

‘Sexting’

‘Miss Manners’ Online

Nano and Micro – Cash, Generation, Technology, Health

Mobility

MAJOR MARKETS

Australia

The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 12 National Snapshot, Australia
Bucking the trend
Chart 13 Spending and Lending, Australia
Back to BYOB
Discovering saving
Summary 1 short term outlook
Summary 2 Opportunities and Threats, Australia

Brazil

The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 14 National Snapshot, Brazil
Chart 15 Spending and Lending, Brazil
Summary 3 short term outlook
Summary 4 Opportunities and Threats, Brazil

China

The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 16 National Snapshot, China
“The most difficult year”
Online shopping grows
Chart 17 Spending and Lending, China
Property stalling
Summary 5 short term outlook
Summary 6 Opportunities and Threats, China

France

The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 18 National Snapshot, France
Chart 19 Spending and Lending, France
Low debt unable to protect
Summary 7 short term outlook
Summary 8 Opportunities and Threats, France

Germany

The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 20 National Snapshot, Germany
Shaken confidence despite financial conservatism
Chart 21 Spending and Lending, Germany
Summary 9 short term outlook
Summary 10 Opportunities and Threats, Germany

India

The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 22 National Snapshot, India
Growth slows
Resilient shoppers
Chart 23 Spending and Lending, India
Summary 11 short term outlook
Summary 12 Opportunities and Threats, India

Japan

The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 24 National Snapshot, Japan
Encouraging consumer confidence
Chart 25 Spending and Lending, Japan
The challenge of a strong currency
Summary 13 short term outlook
Summary 14 Opportunities and Threats, Japan

Mexico

The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 26 National Snapshot, Mexico
Political uncertainty
Chart 27 Spending and Lending, Mexico
Summary 15 short term outlook
Summary 16 Opportunities and Threats, Mexico

Russia

The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 28 National Snapshot, Russia
Government action
Consumer confidence slow to fall
Global problems
Chart 29 Spending and Lending, Russia
Summary 17 short term outlook
Summary 18 Opportunities and Threats, Russia

Spain

The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 30 National Snapshot, Spain
Economic stimulus – more labour flexibility
Chart 31 Spending and Lending, Spain
Summary 19 short term outlook
Summary 20 Opportunities and Threats, Spain

UK

The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 32 National Snapshot, UK
Shoppers not savers
Chart 33 Spending and Lending, UK
Summary 21 short term outlook
Summary 22 Opportunities and Threats, UK

US

The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 34 National Snapshot, US
No job, no healthcare
Baby boomers dream of eternal youth
Chart 35 Spending and Lending, US
Shopping the world with plastic
Summary 23 short term outlook
Summary 24 Opportunities and Threats, US

FUTURE OUTLOOK

How Kind Will Mother Nature be?

Oceans Struggle

New World Orders?

The Future’s Bright, the Future’s .....

Consumer Confidence

Table 7 Forecast % Year-on-Year Differences in Consumer Expenditure
Table 8 Unemployment Rate (%) 2008 Actual 2009-2013 Forecast
Table 9 GDP Growth Rate (%)

PLANNING FUTURE SCENARIOS

Reducing Risk Through Planning – the General Idea

Chart 36 Simple Forecast Scenarios
Chart 37 Issues to Consider in Scenario Planning

Survival Strategies

Hoping and Coping

Waiting for ‘Spring’

Anxious Adaptation

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