This briefing looks at changes in Euromonitor International’s home care forecasts across the 54 markets covered by the Industry Forecast Model, as part of our quarterly forecast review. A more positive economic outlook during this quarter has led to a considerable upgrade in our sizes forecast. The US sticks out in terms of economic recovery. A second wave in India implies continuously high demand for home hygiene.
The global economy continues to bounce back from the slump experienced in 2020 when the pandemic caused partial closures of economies and businesses worldwide. However, a volatile and uncertain economic situation prevails, with pre-pandemic GDP growth remaining a distant prospect. Home care, given the essential role it plays in hygiene, will continue to perform strongly, while we can expect downtrading to occur as consumers are looking to rationalise their expenditure.
A more positive growth outlook for home care during our Q2 quarterly update derives from a comparatively better situation in Asia Pacific and an improved economic situation in North America. Relative to the value sales contraction reported in Q1, an improvement in economic circumstances and consumer confidence during this quarter results in the projection of an additional USD1.1 billion in global home care value sales by 2025.
A major second outbreak in India is set to result in heightened demand for toilet care and surface cleaners, while fewer occasions out of the home limit growth potential of laundry care products. Product categories deemed less essential in combating the virus are likely to respond negatively as Indian consumers prioritise their spending on products that keep themselves and their families safe. The situation remains uncertain and a resolution does not appear to be imminent.
As our scientific understanding of the virus improves, in some countries, government advice and media coverage are going through something of a reset. The virus is known to be primarily airborne with only little evidence suggesting that it can be transmitted by touching surfaces. An increased number of media reports discourages consumers from disinfecting surfaces and instead to follow advice on indoor ventilation, distancing and face covering. A buzz kill for surface cleaning?
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