Home Care: Quarterly Statement Q4 2017

Strategy Briefing

About This Report

Dec 2017

This latest quarterly revision of the global home care industry forecast model suggests a modest upgrade in growth prospects. The top contributors to positive revisions are China and Japan, with Western and Eastern Europe showing stronger signs of recovery. Nevertheless, the global political and economic climate is fragile, with certain scenarios having the potential to be detrimental to the global home care industry. This quarter, we look at scenarios that might do just that.

Want to find out more about this report?
Request more information
Why buy this report?

Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.

Your Recently Viewed Reports

Home Care: Quarterly Statement Q4 2017

Steady as she goes

The latest quarterly revision (Q4 2017) of the global home care industry forecast model suggests a very modest upgrade in growth prospects. The global Passport baseline CAGR for 2016-2021 value growth has been revised by 0.1 percentage point – the equivalent of just USD165 million. The key takeaway here is that the global economy appears to be moving closer to recovery from the recent downturn.

Asia Pacific

In terms of positive revisions from the baseline in Q4 2017, Asia Pacific was the front runner, with China and, more recently, Japan (a sign that “Abenomics” is actually working?), pulling the rest of the pack along pack. In fact, the two markets combined contributed 87% of the upward revision for the Asia Pacific region.

Europe

In spite of Brexit, both Western Europe and Eastern Europe appeared to have moved more concertedly into recovery mode, with even half of the PIGS (Spain and Italy) now showing positive growth beyond what were relatively pessimistic forecasts to 2021.

Brazil

By contrast, Brazil continues to witness a significant turn around in fortunes, comparing Q4 2016 with Q4 2017, the country produced an about face from the world home care’s most negatively affected nation to its most positive. In Q3 2017, Brazil was the second highest upgraded market globally only behind China.

Status quo

In this report, we turn our attention to potential scenarios that would rock the home care boat. The three scenarios reviewed in depth are: a no deal Brexit that would see the UK leave the EU with no deal in place; a China hard landing scenario that would be bad news for the global economy; and what would happen if Trump decided to initiate a trade war.

Scope

Scope

Q4 Macroeconomic Update

Executive summary
GDP forecasts: Revisions over last quarter
Global risk scenarios
Major macro risks for the home care industry

Q4 Home Care Industry Update

Key findings
World home care market outlook strengthens
Middle East and Africa: The world brake
Steady as she goes

Threats to the Status Quo: No Deal Brexit

The Industry Forecast Model’s 12 key forecast scenarios
No-deal Brexit
Key events so far: The UK and the EU in deadlock over divorce bill
Economy: a No-Deal Brexit is the worst case scenario for the UK
Home care: Dual strategy required for industry leaders
Home care: Households trade down and substitute
Spotlight on Unilever Group: Tesco dispute the prelude to price ris es
How to navigate price increases: Which categories are more vulnerable?
Our B rexit Analytics Model

Threats to the Status Quo: China Hard Landing Scenario

China hard landing
China in the era of Xi Jinping
Macro economy: Onset of deep economic slump
Home care: I mpact on Asia Pacific market growth would be strongest
Home care: I n absolute value terms the picture is different
Home care: Toilet care and air care would slump the most
Home care: Laundry care still has most to lose
Economic contraction would swell the lower income segments
How does consumer behaviour translate into sales decline?
Home care: Variety of products will be impacted by different income groups
Now breath a sigh of relief: Q4 results for China are OK – with one caveat

Threats to the Status Quo: Trump Trade War Scenario

Trump Trade War: Make America Great Again?
Macro-economic outlook
The potential impact of the trade war scenario
Asia Pacific: Most affected region in absolute value terms
Latin America: Mexico takes the brunt
Mexico: Bird’s eye view of category level impact
US: Shooting itself in the foot?
Conclusion

About Our Industry Forecast Models

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model
Key applications for Industry Forecast Models

Appendix

Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model
Growth decomposition explained
Significance and applications for growth decomposition