This latest quarterly revision of the global home care industry forecast model suggests a modest upgrade in growth prospects. The top contributors to positive revisions are China and Japan, with Western and Eastern Europe showing stronger signs of recovery. Nevertheless, the global political and economic climate is fragile, with certain scenarios having the potential to be detrimental to the global home care industry. This quarter, we look at scenarios that might do just that.
You have no recently viewed reports.
Why not browse through our Featured or Trending Reports to see what we have to offer?
The latest quarterly revision (Q4 2017) of the global home care industry forecast model suggests a very modest upgrade in growth prospects. The global Passport baseline CAGR for 2016-2021 value growth has been revised by 0.1 percentage point – the equivalent of just USD165 million. The key takeaway here is that the global economy appears to be moving closer to recovery from the recent downturn.
In terms of positive revisions from the baseline in Q4 2017, Asia Pacific was the front runner, with China and, more recently, Japan (a sign that “Abenomics” is actually working?), pulling the rest of the pack along pack. In fact, the two markets combined contributed 87% of the upward revision for the Asia Pacific region.
In spite of Brexit, both Western Europe and Eastern Europe appeared to have moved more concertedly into recovery mode, with even half of the PIGS (Spain and Italy) now showing positive growth beyond what were relatively pessimistic forecasts to 2021.
By contrast, Brazil continues to witness a significant turn around in fortunes, comparing Q4 2016 with Q4 2017, the country produced an about face from the world home care’s most negatively affected nation to its most positive. In Q3 2017, Brazil was the second highest upgraded market globally only behind China.
In this report, we turn our attention to potential scenarios that would rock the home care boat. The three scenarios reviewed in depth are: a no deal Brexit that would see the UK leave the EU with no deal in place; a China hard landing scenario that would be bad news for the global economy; and what would happen if Trump decided to initiate a trade war.