This briefing provides updates on 2021-2025 quarterly forecasts for the hot drinks industry, sourced from Euromonitor International’s Hot Drinks Forecast Model for Q1 2021, reflecting updated GDP and Coronavirus (COVID-19) impact forecasts.
The latest Q1 update (February 2021) sees a marginal downgrade against expectations at the time of publication of the October 2020 baseline. Retail volume growth of 1% is expected for 2021, a 0.1 percentage points downgrade versus the researched baseline.
The new Q1 hot drinks forecast update reflects a high degree of uncertainty, given unclear and changing epidemiological trends across markets.
Going forward, in most markets around the world it is progress against COVID-19 (as represented by soft drivers) which will determine the rate at which the channel shift from the on-trade to off-trade reverses, with lower virus numbers driving faster GDP growth (still positive for retail growth), and a shift back to away-from-home consumption (negative for retail volumes, but likely to be positive for volumes overall).
Whilst there is no question that many fully-vaccinated consumers will be eager to return to dining out, it is by no means clear that all of the occasions lost in 2020 will return.
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