Hot Drinks: Quarterly Statement Q1 2021

March 2021

This briefing provides updates on 2021-2025 quarterly forecasts for the hot drinks industry, sourced from Euromonitor International’s Hot Drinks Forecast Model for Q1 2021, reflecting updated GDP and Coronavirus (COVID-19) impact forecasts.

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Key findings

Slight downgrade to global forecasts

The latest Q1 update (February 2021) sees a marginal downgrade against expectations at the time of publication of the October 2020 baseline. Retail volume growth of 1% is expected for 2021, a 0.1 percentage points downgrade versus the researched baseline.

Significant downside risk remains for global retail demand

The new Q1 hot drinks forecast update reflects a high degree of uncertainty, given unclear and changing epidemiological trends across markets.

India illustrates potential impact of recovery on retail volumes

Going forward, in most markets around the world it is progress against COVID-19 (as represented by soft drivers) which will determine the rate at which the channel shift from the on-trade to off-trade reverses, with lower virus numbers driving faster GDP growth (still positive for retail growth), and a shift back to away-from-home consumption (negative for retail volumes, but likely to be positive for volumes overall).

H2 2021 likely to show long-term durability of COVID-19-induced shifts

Whilst there is no question that many fully-vaccinated consumers will be eager to return to dining out, it is by no means clear that all of the occasions lost in 2020 will return.

Introduction

Scope
Key findings

Q1 Hot Drinks Update

Slight downgrade to global forecasts
Significant downside risk remains for global retail demand
Largest upgrades/downgrades reflect pace of foodservice recovery
India illustrates potential impact of recovery on retail volumes
JDE Peet’s FY2020 results show extent of channel shifting
Conclusions/takeaways from this quarter

Q1 Macroeconomic Update

Global baseline outlook: Downside risks to the recovery have declined
Uncertainty remains high, but with a more optimistic tilt
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter
Hot Drinks data and reporting timeline

About Our Industry Forecast Model

Euromonitor International and COVID-19: Forecasts and analysis
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