Hot Drinks Quarterly Statement Q2 2021

June 2021

This briefing provides updates on 2021-2025 quarterly forecasts for the hot drinks industry, sourced from Euromonitor International’s Hot Drinks Forecast Model for Q2 2021, reflecting updated GDP and Coronavirus (COVID-19) impact forecasts.

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Key findings

Slight upgrade to global off-trade hot drinks demand in Q2

Global hot drinks retail growth saw a slight upgrade in the second quarter of 2021, reflecting an accelerating pace of recovery in many markets.

Vaccinations drive recovery

The US in particular has seen both a successful vaccine rollout and a strong fiscal stimulus programme, while developing markets such as China have similarly seen strong recoveries.

Impact of second wave in India to send projections lower

India continues to face a staggering number of new cases at the time of writing, with the full impact of the current wave not yet fully clear, nor fully incorporated into current forecasts.

H2 2021 likely to show long-term durability of COVID-19-induced shifts

While there is no question that many fully-vaccinated consumers will be eager to return to dining out, it is by no means clear that all of the occasions lost in 2020 will return.

Introduction

Scope
Key findings

Q2 2021 Hot Drinks Update

Slight upgrade to global off-trade hot drinks demand in Q2
Largest upgrades/downgrades
Impact of second wave in India to send projections lower
Pessimistic scenario most likely outcome for H2 2021 in India
UAE projections reflect impact of COVID-19 on global immigration flows
Tea growth split between China-centric and non-China-centric categories
Nestlé results suggest at-home coffee boom to continue through 2021
Conclusions/takeaways from this quarter

Q2 2021 Macroeconomic Update

Global baseline outlook: Faster recovery expected
Uncertainty continues to decline but remains significant
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter, AE
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter, EMDE

About Our Industry Forecast Model

Euromonitor International and COVID-19: Forecasts and analysis
Data and reporting timeline
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