How Luxury is Vulnerable to a Cold Climate

Strategy Briefing

About This Report

Dec 2008

Though the credit squeeze is putting the brakes on mainstream consumer goods markets, there is still room at the top end for big spending. This briefing considers the impact of the trends in global luxury goods markets – eg fractional ownership, rental, planned scarcity and curated consumption, as well as inhibitors like wealth fatigue and, obviously, the Crunch. It accesses Euromonitor’s latest forecasts on overall spending patterns by income levels and data on premium and luxury markets.

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How Luxury is Vulnerable to a Cold Climate

What this report includes

  • Top-level strategic analysis of how major consumer trends will influence global markets
  • Consumer insight
  • Impact across all relevant consumer markets
  • Unique graphics and case studies
  • Key market snapshots
  • Accompanying presentation to synthesise main findings
     

Why buy this report

  • Identify factors driving change now and in the future
  • Understand motivation
  • Forward-looking outlook
  • Briefings and presentation should provoke lively discussion at senior level
  • Take a step back from micro trends
  • Get up to date estimates and comment

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How Luxury is Vulnerable to a Cold Climate

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Key Trends and Drivers
Market Drivers
Consumer Drivers
Major Markets
Trends and Counter-trends
Outlook in a Cold Climate
Summary 1 Opportunities and Challenges for Luxury Marketers

THE ROLE OF LUXURY

What does luxury mean?
Luxury in a downturn – are there lessons from history?
Chart 1 Long Term GDP Growth 2000-2013
The middle is cinched most
The squeeze – crunchy or soft centred?
How it impacts on luxury
The changing face of luxury
Is it really luxury? ... the rise of counterfeiting

MARKET DRIVERS

Overview
It's always the economy, stupid
Mood music
The ubiquity of luxury or "When you can get a luxury biscuit, what does luxury mean?"
The power of brands
Category Stories
Chart 2 Divisions of Luxury
Life's Little Luxuries
Chart 3 World: Premium Sales Value as a % of Total Category Sales by Sector 2007
Cosmetics
Chart 4 Major Markets: Sales of Premium Lipstick and Lip Gloss 2007
Chart 5 Major Markets: Value Sales of Premium and Mass Anti-agers 2007
Food
Chocolate
Chart 6 World Share of Spending on Boxed Chocolate Assortments by Region 2007
Pet care
Chart 7 Major Markets: Pets per Household 2007
Chart 8 World: Value Sales of Dog and Cat Food by Price Platform 2003-2008
Household chemicals
Foodservice
Traditional Luxuries
Fragrances
Chart 9 Major Markets: Volume Growth in Premium Fragrances 2003/2007
Fashion and jewellery
Chart 10 Major Markets: Growth in Spending on Jewellery 2000/2005
Premium spirits and champagne
Chart 11 Regional Wine, Champagne and Other Sparkling Wine: % Growth in Total Volume Sales 2003/2007
Modern Luxury Living
Travel
Luxury technology
Tech trinkets
Luxury on-line
Time as the ultimate luxury
"True" Luxury Living
Chart 12 Forbes' Cost of Living Extremely Well Index 1976-2008
Table 1 US: Cost of Living Extremely Well 2006/2007
The super-rich – a nation apart?

CONSUMER DRIVERS

The Psychology of Luxury
Chart 13 Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs
Inner- and Outer-directedness
Public and private consumption
Who Drives Luxury?
Old versus new money
The super-rich – money no object
The global elite – power and the glory
Summary 2 Newsweek's World Superclass 2008
The glitterati – celebrity
The corporate rich
Luxury services
Beyond the concierge

LUXURY TRENDS – FOCUS MARKETS

Brazil
Chart 14 Brazil: Household Expenditure by Decile 2006
Chart 15 Brazil: Annual Household Disposable Income Profile 2001, 2004-2007
Table 2 Brazil: Ownership of "Luxury" Durables by Income Decile/Quintile (% of Households) 2006
China
Chart 16 China: Household Expenditure by Decile 2006
Chart 17 China: Annual Household Disposable Income Profile 2001, 2004-2007
Table 3 China: Ownership of "Luxury" Durables by Income Decile/Quintile (% of Households) 2006
France
Chart 18 France: Household Expenditure by Decile 2006
Chart 19 France: Annual Household Disposable Income Profile 2001, 2004-2007
Table 4 France: Ownership of "Luxury" Durables by Income Decile/Quintile (% of Households) 2006
India
Chart 20 India: Household Expenditure by Decile 2006
Chart 21 India: Annual Household Disposable Income Profile 2001, 2004-2007
Table 5 India: Ownership of "Luxury" Durables by Income Decile/Quintile (% of Households) 2006
Japan
Chart 22 Japan: Household Expenditure by Decile 2006
Chart 23 Japan: Annual Household Disposable Income Profile 2001, 2004-2007
Table 6 Japan: Ownership of "Luxury" Durables by Income Decile/Quintile (% of Households) 2006
Russia
Chart 24 Russia: Household Expenditure by Decile 2006
Chart 25 Russia: Annual Household Disposable Income Profile 2001, 2004-2007
Table 7 Russia: Ownership of "Luxury" Durables by Income Decile/Quintile (% of Households) 2006
UAE
Chart 26 UAE: Household Expenditure by Decile 2006
Chart 27 UAE: Annual Household Disposable Income Profile 2001, 2004-2007
Table 8 UAE: Ownership of "Luxury" Durables by Income Decile/Quintile (% of Households) 2006
UK
Chart 28 UK: Household Expenditure by Decile 2006
Chart 29 UK: Annual Household Disposable Income Profile 2001, 2004-2007
Table 9 UK: Ownership of "Luxury" Durables by Income Decile/Quintile (% of Households) 2006
US
Chart 30 US: Household Expenditure by Decile 2006
Chart 31 US: Annual Household Disposable Income Profile 2001, 2004-2007
Table 10 US: Ownership of "Luxury" Durables by Income Decile/Quintile (% of Households) 2006

FUTURE TRENDS

Welcome to the 21st century
Luxury fragments
Curated consumption
Conspicuous and inconspicuous consumption
Ecoluxe
Fractional ownership
"Bling", crime and coded consumption
From old to new – antiques to art
Values shifts
Wealth weariness
Luxury fatigue or luxury inflation?

MARKET FORECASTS

Plot 1 – affordability of luxury and the economic outlook
Table 11 Major Markets: Forecast GDP Growth 2008/2009/2013
Table 12 Consumer Confidence: Planning Major Purchases Over the Next 12 Months, Major European Markets 2006-2008
Table 13 World Consumer Expenditure Forecast Value by Region at Constant 2008 Prices 2008-2012
Chart 32 Housing by Tenure 2007
Table 14 Savings Ratio (2007 Actual, 2008-2012 Estimates)
Plot 2 – the psychology of luxury