With the loss of impulse and on-the-go consumption occasions during 2020 due to Coronavirus (COVID-19), impulse ice cream saw a marked decline in sales, resulting in a negative performance by the overall market in this year. However, take-home ice cream was able to record positive growth, as more consumption moved into the home environment. An immediate return to positive growth is expected, with the sales increases improving over the course of the forecast period.
Ice cream and frozen desserts had a troubled 2015-2020 period, with Brazil only emerging from recession at its start, Argentina experiencing economic difficulties towards its end, Chile (and other countries) hit by social unrest and the virtual collapse of the Venezuelan market. This meant relatively strong declines in two of the four years before 2020 – and then COVID-19 hit the region. A sales fall of 5% in 2020 and a negative 3% CAGR in 2015-2020 were the result.
Impulse ice cream, which makes up around two thirds of overall market retail value, was unduly hit by the COVID-19 virus and the measures taken to try and contain its spread across the region. Although grocery stores were allowed to remain open, other retail outlets had to close, and people were out and about in public a lot less than usual, significantly reducing consumption occasions for impulse products and therefore also their sales.
On the other hand, take-home ice cream – with consumers spending much more time in their homes than usual due to lockdowns, quarantines and remote working/learning – actually turned in a much better performance than a year earlier during 2020, driven in particular by bulk dairy ice cream.
A regional CAGR of 2% is expected over 2020-2025, with all product areas recording positive CAGRs. Take-home ice cream will continue to see positive growth, while impulse ice cream will return to recording increasing sales from 2022. The much smaller frozen desserts and frozen yoghurt categories will also return to positive growth territory – although the latter’s sales in 2025 will still be only around half those registered in 2019.
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