After a slower year due to COVID-19 in 2020, in 2021 the rates of retail volume and current value increase for ice cream and frozen desserts are expected to rise, although not quite to the levels seen earlier in the review period. The virus was still evident in the country in the first half of the year, which will limit the rate of growth for impulse ice cream, as consumers spend more time working and socialising at home to prevent the spread of the virus, although will help to maintain growth in take-home ice cream.
As is the case with most snacks categories in Mexico, the health and wellness trend is increasingly influencing consumer choices and manufacturer strategies in ice cream and frozen desserts. Recent years saw a number of players adjust to this trend by reducing the calorie content of their brands and launching products that contain higher-quality and more natural or nutritious ingredients.
The competitive landscape in frozen desserts is expected to remain different from that in ice cream in 2021. Frozen desserts is only a small category, and nearly two thirds of sales are set to be held by Operadora Vips and Tiendas Chedraui in 2021, neither of which has a presence in ice cream.
Higher retail volume and current value growth rates are expected in ice cream and frozen desserts throughout the forecast period than those seen in 2020 and 2021. Recovery from the impact of COVID-19 is likely to be one factor leading to the improvement of the rates of increase, as vaccination is rolled out and the virus comes under better control.
However, the recovery of the foodservice channel is likely to prevent stronger retail growth over the forecast period, as consumers substitute consumption occasions at home with trips to foodservice outlets. Foodservice is set to see much higher rates of growth than retail throughout the forecast period.
Take-home and impulse ice cream are forecast to see similar current value growth rates in the forecast period, although impulse ice cream will remain by far the larger category. However, multi-pack dairy ice cream is expected to see the strongest rate of increase from a low base.
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This report originates from Passport, our Ice Cream and Frozen Desserts research and analysis database.
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