Ice Cream and Frozen Desserts in the US

PROSPECTS

As sales of protein-packed variants reverse course, uncertainty abounds

Since 2016, when Halo Top’s protein-packed low sugar ice cream first took the industry by storm, its dizzying growth has mesmerised observers. Many initially scoffed at the brand, dismissing it as nothing more than a phase, yet its triple- and quadruple-digit annual sales growth left many others wondering whether the future direction of the industry had arrived.

Free from dairy matures, offering a glimpse into the future face of ice cream

Consistent with the growing interest in dairy alternatives displayed across packaged food categories, plant-based, dairy-free variants of ice cream have achieved significant growth in recent years. With growing numbers of consumers interested in limiting their intake of dairy as a result of health, environmental and animal welfare considerations, manufacturers have sought to rapidly offer options in the ice cream aisle.

Ice cream reveals increasingly fragmented conceptions of healthy indulgence

For years, Americans seeking to maintain a semblance of health while simultaneously indulging in ice cream products opted for low-fat variants. As attitudes towards consumption of fatty foods have increasingly changed, however, with more and more consumers viewing fat as a neutral or even positive attribute, low-fat ice cream has largely fallen out of favour with Americans.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Ice cream quickly becoming a segment defined by constant reinvention

Packaged food is an industry containing an inherent obstacle to growth in the form of an ever-present limit to the amount of food that can be consumed by people in a given period of time. While all segments face this challenge, non-commodity items such as ice cream are particularly subject to its whims.

Makers of dairy alternative ice creams increasingly seek to differentiate themselves

Mirroring the trajectory of plant-based milk alternatives, free from dairy ice cream alternatives are rapidly experiencing growth, carving out a growing portion of the market and headed well on the way towards becoming mainstream offerings. This has attracted increasing numbers of new entrants seeking to capture sales growth for themselves, which has in turn limited growth for others and heightened competition in the space.

As Halo Top’s prospects become murkier, other manufacturers pursue the mantle of innovation leader

With Halo Top suddenly appearing mortal in 2018 after multiple years of dramatically high growth, many in the US ice cream industry are wondering who might be best positioned to next achieve similarly strong growth. While the likelihood is quite low that a brand will experience the same extreme and sudden uptick in sales that Halo Top did, that brand’s experience revealed the unexpectedly high promise for growth present within ice cream if tapped into correctly.

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