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Strategy Briefing

Menthol 2020

21 pages, May 2018

US$1,325

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About This Report

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If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE!

Menthol is an important niche category in combustible cigarettes. The EU-wide menthol ban, coming into effect in May 2020, and considerations of further restrictions in key markets such as the US, make the topic pressing for tobacco manufacturers. This report follows the latest regulatory developments regarding menthol, analyses socio-demographic menthol smoker profiles, shows the industry reaction to already-imposed bans, and looks into possible future behaviours of both industry and consumers.

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Overview

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Volume sales of menthol cigarettes are in decline

Global menthol cigarette sales reached 231 billion sticks in 2016, a 17% absolute decline over the review period. The biggest contributors to this drop were the US,Brazil, the Philippines, Russia and Mexico. In terms of percentage penetration, however, the drops are less significant. Some, such as Russia, have even seen growth in menthol penetration, amid larger drops in overall combustible cigarettes.

The 2020 EU menthol ban will further squeeze the category

The revised EU Tobacco Products Directive (TPD), which currently bans characterising flavours in cigarettes and fine cut tobacco, will extend its purview to menthol on 20May 2020. This will eliminate legal menthol cigarettes and RYO in the region, and suppress the category at a global level.

Other countries may also follow suit

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is also considering additional restrictions on menthol in tobacco products, while Canada and Ethiopia already have bans in effect. Similar measures are currently being discussed in several other markets.

Consumer reactions

A recent study shows that quitting altogether, using contraband or alternative flavoured products, are all more likely reactions than initially expected.

Industry reactions

One key tobacco player has redesigned its packaging in an attempt to overcome an existing menthol ban, however, other strategies might be more popular in the future.

Socio-demographic profiles for menthol smokers are available

A distinctive socio-demographic profile for menthol smokers has emerged in several regions. In the EU, young, occasional users and females show higher rates of menthol smoking.

Substitutes

Vapour, cigarillos, adding menthol manually, slim or light variants and illicit tobacco are all substitutes that could attract consumers post-ban. However, future regulations could quickly limit the potential of these products.

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Scope

Key findings

Currently implemented flavour and menthol bans around the world

More restrictions on flavours, including menthol, are likely in the US

Other markets with current or pending flavour and menthol bans

2030: Menthol and flavour ban projection

Menthol cigarette sales are declining on a global level

Menthol tobacco products and innovations

The EU-wide menthol ban will disrupt several important markets

Distinctive socio-demographic menthol user profiles in the EU and US

Important differences among menthol smokers within the EU

Menthol smoker profiles in different EU Regions (1)

Menthol smoker profiles in different EU Regions (2)

Likely future changes in consumer behaviours

Where would menthol smokers go post-bans?

Which substitutes could be popular in the EU?

Research reveals contrast in expected v. actual reaction to a menthol ban

Other ways to flavour or mentholate tobacco products

How are manufacturers adapting to existing menthol bans?

Lessons learnt from other FMCG industries

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Menthol 2020

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Volume sales of menthol cigarettes are in decline

The 2020 EU menthol ban will further squeeze the category

Other countries may also follow suit

Consumer reactions

Industry reactions

Socio-demographic profiles for menthol smokers are available

Substitutes

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Scope

Key findings

Currently implemented flavour and menthol bans around the world

More restrictions on flavours, including menthol, are likely in the US

Other markets with current or pending flavour and menthol bans

2030: Menthol and flavour ban projection

Menthol cigarette sales are declining on a global level

Menthol tobacco products and innovations

The EU-wide menthol ban will disrupt several important markets

Distinctive socio-demographic menthol user profiles in the EU and US

Important differences among menthol smokers within the EU

Menthol smoker profiles in different EU Regions (1)

Menthol smoker profiles in different EU Regions (2)

Likely future changes in consumer behaviours

Where would menthol smokers go post-bans?

Which substitutes could be popular in the EU?

Research reveals contrast in expected v. actual reaction to a menthol ban

Other ways to flavour or mentholate tobacco products

How are manufacturers adapting to existing menthol bans?

Lessons learnt from other FMCG industries

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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