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Menthol is an important niche category in combustible cigarettes. The EU-wide menthol ban, coming into effect in May 2020, and considerations of further restrictions in key markets such as the US, make the topic pressing for tobacco manufacturers. This report follows the latest regulatory developments regarding menthol, analyses socio-demographic menthol smoker profiles, shows the industry reaction to already-imposed bans, and looks into possible future behaviours of both industry and consumers.
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Global menthol cigarette sales reached 231 billion sticks in 2016, a 17% absolute decline over the review period. The biggest contributors to this drop were the US,Brazil, the Philippines, Russia and Mexico. In terms of percentage penetration, however, the drops are less significant. Some, such as Russia, have even seen growth in menthol penetration, amid larger drops in overall combustible cigarettes.
The revised EU Tobacco Products Directive (TPD), which currently bans characterising flavours in cigarettes and fine cut tobacco, will extend its purview to menthol on 20May 2020. This will eliminate legal menthol cigarettes and RYO in the region, and suppress the category at a global level.
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is also considering additional restrictions on menthol in tobacco products, while Canada and Ethiopia already have bans in effect. Similar measures are currently being discussed in several other markets.
A recent study shows that quitting altogether, using contraband or alternative flavoured products, are all more likely reactions than initially expected.
One key tobacco player has redesigned its packaging in an attempt to overcome an existing menthol ban, however, other strategies might be more popular in the future.
A distinctive socio-demographic profile for menthol smokers has emerged in several regions. In the EU, young, occasional users and females show higher rates of menthol smoking.
Vapour, cigarillos, adding menthol manually, slim or light variants and illicit tobacco are all substitutes that could attract consumers post-ban. However, future regulations could quickly limit the potential of these products.
Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.