Menthol 2020

Volume sales of menthol cigarettes are in decline

Global menthol cigarette sales reached 231 billion sticks in 2016, a 17% absolute decline over the review period. The biggest contributors to this drop were the US,Brazil, the Philippines, Russia and Mexico. In terms of percentage penetration, however, the drops are less significant. Some, such as Russia, have even seen growth in menthol penetration, amid larger drops in overall combustible cigarettes.

The 2020 EU menthol ban will further squeeze the category

The revised EU Tobacco Products Directive (TPD), which currently bans characterising flavours in cigarettes and fine cut tobacco, will extend its purview to menthol on 20May 2020. This will eliminate legal menthol cigarettes and RYO in the region, and suppress the category at a global level.

Other countries may also follow suit

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is also considering additional restrictions on menthol in tobacco products, while Canada and Ethiopia already have bans in effect. Similar measures are currently being discussed in several other markets.

Consumer reactions

A recent study shows that quitting altogether, using contraband or alternative flavoured products, are all more likely reactions than initially expected.

Industry reactions

One key tobacco player has redesigned its packaging in an attempt to overcome an existing menthol ban, however, other strategies might be more popular in the future.

Socio-demographic profiles for menthol smokers are available

A distinctive socio-demographic profile for menthol smokers has emerged in several regions. In the EU, young, occasional users and females show higher rates of menthol smoking.

Substitutes

Vapour, cigarillos, adding menthol manually, slim or light variants and illicit tobacco are all substitutes that could attract consumers post-ban. However, future regulations could quickly limit the potential of these products.