Nappies/diapers/pants experienced solid retail volume and current value growth in both 2020 and 2021, despite a significant drop in the number of births, which is covered in more detail below. Most of the extra demand for nappies/diapers/pants was due to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns.
The number of births in Australia declined in 2020, and declined even further in 2021. The number of births had been gradually declining prior to the pandemic, as Australia’s ageing population meant that proportionally fewer Australian women were at peak child-bearing age, but the impact was magnified during the pandemic.
Reusable cloth nappies/diapers were becoming increasingly popular prior to the pandemic, but the risk that disposable nappies/diapers may not be available in stores during lockdowns provided an added incentive for parents to make the switch. However, although reusable cloth nappies/diapers have gradually moved into the mainstream, they are not for everyone.
Whilst the number of Australian women aged between 30 and 34 years old flatlined in recent years, over the forecast period this age group is expected to decline. The number of Australian women aged between 30 and 34 years is expected to fall from 935,000 in 2021 to 900,000 in 2026.
Even though retail volume growth in nappies/diapers/pants is only expected to be marginal in the forecast period, current value growth is expected to grow far more strongly, due to a continuation of both premiumisation and a “pantisation” trends; that is, the growing preference for transitioning to disposable pants as soon as the child is ready. The desire for the convenience that disposable pants offer will encourage consumers to upgrade as soon as is practical, although the extent to which they feel comfortable doing so will be influenced by consumer confidence in Australia’s economy.
With Australia reopening after the pandemic, many parents will go back to working in an office. Whilst this is likely to occur less amongst new parents, who have a solid rationale for continuing to work from home, it is still likely that the number of Australian children attending childcare will increase.
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This is the aggregation of nappies, diapers and pantsSee All of Our Definitions
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