New Frontiers: Strategy Briefing on the Next Eight Emerging Economies

January 2010

The global downturn has widened the economic spotlight beyond the BRICs and this Strategy Briefing looks at the ‘next eight’ markets – Argentina, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey. Within the countries, gaps between rich and poor; old and young; urban and rural are increasing. This report provides a snapshot of the common themes across markets as well as the economic, demographic and marketing differences and drivers of change.

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What this report includes

  • Top-level strategic analysis of how major consumer trends will influence global markets
  • Consumer insight
  • Impact across all relevant consumer markets
  • Unique graphics and case studies
  • Key market snapshots
  • Accompanying presentation to synthesise main findings
     

Why buy this report

  • Identify factors driving change now and in the future
  • Understand motivation
  • Forward-looking outlook
  • Briefings and presentation should provoke lively discussion at senior level
  • Take a step back from micro trends
  • Get up to date estimates and comment

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Overview
Summary 1 Opportunities and Threats
Introduction
Chart 1 The New Frontier Markets Table 1 Overview of GDP and Population 2008 The rise of the G20
Global Snapshot
Chart 2 G20: GDP (2008 US$ billion) Chart 3 G20: GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 2008 (US$ trillion) Chart 4 G20: GDP per Household (2008 US$’000) The crash (or not) Table 2 G20: GDP Growth 2007-2011 (% growth) The rise of the developing economies The market opportunity Chart 5 New Frontier Markets: Consumer Expenditure as a % of GDP (2008) Spending priorities Chart 6 New Frontier Markets: Share of Consumer Expenditure 2008 (%) Summary 2 Common Themes Uniting New Frontier Markets Increasing gap between rich and poor Chart 7 New Frontier Markets: Gini Index (2008) Chart 8 New Frontier Markets: Savings Ratio 2008 (% Income Saved) Urbanisation – gap between city and country Chart 9 New Frontier Markets: Urban and Rural Population (%) 2008 Table 3 New Frontier Markets: Trends in Urbanisation 1980-2020 Emerging middle class in emerging markets Table 4 New Frontier Markets: Household Average Annual Income by Decile 2008 The global and local middle classes Table 5 New Frontier Markets: % of the Population by Personal Income Band 2008 The first global generation – the impact of the Millennials Delaying commitment for career Chart 10 New Frontier Markets: % of the Population Aged Under 25 Years 2008 Youth unemployment Table 6 New Frontier Markets: Youth Unemployment (% Unemployed by Age Group) 2008

NEW FRONTIER MARKET SNAPSHOTS

Argentina
Political/economic context Table 7 Argentina: Economic Indicators 2004-2008 Social/demographic context Chart 11 Argentina: Demographic Profile 2008 Daily life Chart 12 Argentina: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008 Consumption infrastructure Chart 13 Argentina: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008 Consumer spending Chart 14 Argentina: Spending by Category – Trend (2004-2008 % CAGR) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)
Indonesia
Political/economic context Table 8 Indonesia: Economic Indicators 2004-2008 Social/demographic context Chart 15 Indonesia: Demographic Profile 2008 Daily life A degree is no guarantee of employment Chart 16 Indonesia: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008 Consumption infrastructure Chart 17 Indonesia: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008 Consumer spending Chart 18 Indonesia: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008 ) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)
Mexico
Political/economic context Table 9 Mexico: Economic Indicators 2004-2008 Social/demographic context Chart 19 Mexico: Demographic Profile 2008 Daily life Upgraded lifestyles Chart 20 Mexico: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008 Techno transformation Consumption infrastructure Chart 21 Mexico: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008 On-line shopping does not deliver sociability Consumer spending Chart 22 Mexico: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)
Poland
Political/economic context Table 10 Poland: Economic Indicators 2004-2008 Social/demographic context Chart 23 Poland: Demographic Profile 2008 Daily life Chart 24 Poland: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008 Consumption infrastructure Chart 25 Poland: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008 Consumer spending Chart 26 Poland: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)
Saudi Arabia
Political/economic context Table 11 Saudi Arabia: Economic Indicators 2004-2008 Social/demographic context Chart 27 Saudi Arabia: Demographic Profile 2008 Miss Beautiful Morals Daily life Chart 28 Saudi Arabia: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008 The battle for health Consumption infrastructure Chart 29 Saudi Arabia: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008 Consumer spending Chart 30 Saudi Arabia: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)
South Africa
Political/economic context HIV/AIDS continues to hit life expectancy Table 12 South Africa: Economic Indicators 2004-2008 Social/demographic context Poverty plus aspiration equals urbanisation Chart 31 South Africa: Demographic Profile 2008 Daily life Chart 32 South Africa: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008 Mobile phones in more households than colour TV Consumption infrastructure Chart 33 South Africa: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008 e-B2B Consumer spending Chart 34 South Africa: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)
South Korea
Political/economic context Table 13 South Korea: Economic Indicators 2004-2008 Social/demographic context Chart 35 South Korea: Demographic Profile 2008 An extra day to play Daily life Chart 36 South Korea: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008 “Generation one metre” Consumption infrastructure Chart 37 South Korea: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008 Luxury still appeals Consumer spending Chart 38 South Korea: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)
Turkey
Political/economic context Table 14 Turkey: Economic Indicators 2004-2008 Falling FDI Social/demographic context Chart 39 Turkey: Demographic Profile 2008 Daily life Chart 40 Turkey: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008 Changing coffeehouse culture Consumption infrastructure Chart 41 Turkey: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008 Consumer spending Chart 42 Turkey: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)
Future Outlook
Key drivers of change Table 15 New Frontier Markets: GDP Growth Rates 2009-2013 Rising “South-South” investment Table 16 New Frontier Markets: Unemployment Rates 2009-2013 Table 17 New Frontier Markets: Inflation Rates 2009-2013 Table 18 New Frontier Markets: Consumer Expenditure – Year-on-Year Growth 2008-2013 Jobless economies
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