New Frontiers: Strategy Briefing on the Next Eight Emerging Economies

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Overview

Summary 1 Opportunities and Threats

Introduction

Chart 1 The New Frontier Markets
Table 1 Overview of GDP and Population 2008
The rise of the G20

Global Snapshot

Chart 2 G20: GDP (2008 US$ billion)
Chart 3 G20: GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 2008 (US$ trillion)
Chart 4 G20: GDP per Household (2008 US$’000)
The crash (or not)
Table 2 G20: GDP Growth 2007-2011 (% growth)
The rise of the developing economies
The market opportunity
Chart 5 New Frontier Markets: Consumer Expenditure as a % of GDP (2008)
Spending priorities
Chart 6 New Frontier Markets: Share of Consumer Expenditure 2008 (%)
Summary 2 Common Themes Uniting New Frontier Markets
Increasing gap between rich and poor
Chart 7 New Frontier Markets: Gini Index (2008)
Chart 8 New Frontier Markets: Savings Ratio 2008 (% Income Saved)
Urbanisation – gap between city and country
Chart 9 New Frontier Markets: Urban and Rural Population (%) 2008
Table 3 New Frontier Markets: Trends in Urbanisation 1980-2020
Emerging middle class in emerging markets
Table 4 New Frontier Markets: Household Average Annual Income by Decile 2008
The global and local middle classes
Table 5 New Frontier Markets: % of the Population by Personal Income Band 2008
The first global generation – the impact of the Millennials
Delaying commitment for career
Chart 10 New Frontier Markets: % of the Population Aged Under 25 Years 2008
Youth unemployment
Table 6 New Frontier Markets: Youth Unemployment (% Unemployed by Age Group) 2008

NEW FRONTIER MARKET SNAPSHOTS

Argentina

Political/economic context
Table 7 Argentina: Economic Indicators 2004-2008
Social/demographic context
Chart 11 Argentina: Demographic Profile 2008
Daily life
Chart 12 Argentina: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008
Consumption infrastructure
Chart 13 Argentina: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008
Consumer spending
Chart 14 Argentina: Spending by Category – Trend (2004-2008 % CAGR) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

Indonesia

Political/economic context
Table 8 Indonesia: Economic Indicators 2004-2008
Social/demographic context
Chart 15 Indonesia: Demographic Profile 2008
Daily life
A degree is no guarantee of employment
Chart 16 Indonesia: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008
Consumption infrastructure
Chart 17 Indonesia: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008
Consumer spending
Chart 18 Indonesia: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008 ) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

Mexico

Political/economic context
Table 9 Mexico: Economic Indicators 2004-2008
Social/demographic context
Chart 19 Mexico: Demographic Profile 2008
Daily life
Upgraded lifestyles
Chart 20 Mexico: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008
Techno transformation
Consumption infrastructure
Chart 21 Mexico: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008
On-line shopping does not deliver sociability
Consumer spending
Chart 22 Mexico: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

Poland

Political/economic context
Table 10 Poland: Economic Indicators 2004-2008
Social/demographic context
Chart 23 Poland: Demographic Profile 2008
Daily life
Chart 24 Poland: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008
Consumption infrastructure
Chart 25 Poland: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008
Consumer spending
Chart 26 Poland: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

Saudi Arabia

Political/economic context
Table 11 Saudi Arabia: Economic Indicators 2004-2008
Social/demographic context
Chart 27 Saudi Arabia: Demographic Profile 2008
Miss Beautiful Morals
Daily life
Chart 28 Saudi Arabia: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008
The battle for health
Consumption infrastructure
Chart 29 Saudi Arabia: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008
Consumer spending
Chart 30 Saudi Arabia: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

South Africa

Political/economic context
HIV/AIDS continues to hit life expectancy
Table 12 South Africa: Economic Indicators 2004-2008
Social/demographic context
Poverty plus aspiration equals urbanisation
Chart 31 South Africa: Demographic Profile 2008
Daily life
Chart 32 South Africa: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008
Mobile phones in more households than colour TV
Consumption infrastructure
Chart 33 South Africa: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008
e-B2B
Consumer spending
Chart 34 South Africa: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

South Korea

Political/economic context
Table 13 South Korea: Economic Indicators 2004-2008
Social/demographic context
Chart 35 South Korea: Demographic Profile 2008
An extra day to play
Daily life
Chart 36 South Korea: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008
“Generation one metre”
Consumption infrastructure
Chart 37 South Korea: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008
Luxury still appeals
Consumer spending
Chart 38 South Korea: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

Turkey

Political/economic context
Table 14 Turkey: Economic Indicators 2004-2008
Falling FDI
Social/demographic context
Chart 39 Turkey: Demographic Profile 2008
Daily life
Chart 40 Turkey: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008
Changing coffeehouse culture
Consumption infrastructure
Chart 41 Turkey: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008
Consumer spending
Chart 42 Turkey: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

Future Outlook

Key drivers of change
Table 15 New Frontier Markets: GDP Growth Rates 2009-2013
Rising “South-South” investment
Table 16 New Frontier Markets: Unemployment Rates 2009-2013
Table 17 New Frontier Markets: Inflation Rates 2009-2013
Table 18 New Frontier Markets: Consumer Expenditure – Year-on-Year Growth 2008-2013
Jobless economies

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