Packaged Food Forecast Revisit For Western Europe: Preparing For “Grexit”

Introduction

Scope

Objectives of global briefing

The spectre of sovereign debt default in Greece

Impact on fast moving consumer goods

Methodology for restating packaged food retail volume forecasts

Key findings

Lessons From Past Crises

Recession not necessarily bad news for packaged food retail sales

Health, comfort, cocooning key trends for crisis management

Sustained growth depends on giving consumers what they need

Western Europe Packaged Food Retail Outlook

Snacking sustains sales despite continued economic uncertainty

Health and convenience continue to challenge economic gloom

Maturing consumer demand still constraining retail performance

Private label encroachment also eating into regional value growth

Demographic realities create both challenges and opportunities

EU birth rates declining steadily as economic uncertainty persists

Focus on Germany

Health, convenience and price drive German consumer demand

Best performing categories for German packaged food

Snacking will remain a priority for German consumers

Consumer foodservice should bear brunt of further economic slump

No comparison with 2009 even if Greece does default

Meal solutions thrive on the back of deteriorating economy

Orderly Grexit scenario: Re-stating forecasts in Germany

Ethnic, v egetarian ready meals offer potential for retail expansion

Tapping further into nostalgia and home cooking trends

Focus on France

French consumers will continue to prioritise health, convenience

Healthy eating will manifest itself in various ways

Unemployment to rise in event of Grexit-led economic contraction

Effects of Grexit could be felt in France during 2013

Meal solutions and treats could benefit from tighter budgets

Orderly Grexit scenario: Re-stating forecasts in France

Cooking and table sauces well positioned if recession returns

Product differentiation will be key to success in case of Grexit

Focus on Spain

Mounting price sensitivity drives packaged food retail volumes

Snack bars, ready meals and chilled food projected to grow

VAT rises taking their toll on Spanish economic prospects

Chilled and frozen processed food, sauces could still thrive in crisis

Orderly Grexit scenario: Re-stating forecasts in Spain

Leveraging health and wellness to support volume and value sales

Making the most of provenance in frozen processed food

Spain can show the way for added value milk formula brands

Final Conclusions

Meal solutions and snacks can still thrive if Greece defaults

Private label to be main beneficiary of Grexit-led recession

Private label stands to make biggest gains in peripheral economies

Consumers still want premium food, if it’s good value for money

How can brands fight back? Lessons from frozen processed food

How can brands fight back? Lessons from chilled processed food

Growth opportunities for branded milk formula if Greece defaults

Fresh, healthy and indulgent product formats stand to win it all

Appendix: Economic Indicators

Understanding EU debt exposure to Greece: First bailout package

Second Greek bailout agreed in October 2011

Total EU exposure resulting from two Greek bailouts

Further Euro-Zone exposure to Greek sovereign debt crisis

Total exposure to Greek sovereign debt

Spanish debt crisis: Private households run out of liquidity

Spanish bond yields soar after Bankia intervention

Impact of Grexit contagion might aggravate Spanish recession

Italy’s economic outlook: Austerity eating into growth prospects

Italian debt downgrade compromises future ability to borrow

Report Definitions

Report terminology

Report terminology (continued)

Product category definitions

Retail distribution definitions

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