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Strategy Briefing

Packaged Food Forecast Revisit For Western Europe: Preparing For “Grexit”

72 pages, Jan 2013

US$1,200

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About This Report

New Report Guarantee

If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE!

Europe’s economy continues to face considerable uncertainty from Greece’s sovereign debt crisis. With Spain and Italy also facing deepening economic gloom, regional consumer wealth and confidence could deteriorate rapidly. That said, retail packaged food prospects for Western Europe remain fairly resilient even if Greece defaults. Volumes should remain strong as consumers shift away from foodservice, while added value propositions focusing on health and convenience can still drive value sales.

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Overview

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Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.

Past economic crises have limited impact on packaged food retail performance

Retail volume sales of packaged food actually managed to rise by 1% across the whole of Western Europe in 2009, despite a strong general dent to consumer confidence resulting from the global economic crisis.

Both staple items and non-essential indulgences can weather recession

Looking at the retail volume performance of packaged food categories in Western Europe during 2009, the best performers included both staples like noodles, sauces and dairy as well as snacks and ice cream.

Western Europe retail food market should hold firm

While still somewhat lacklustre, short-term retail value prospects are improving slightly for Western Europe’s retail food market despite the region’s continued economic uncertainty. However, most growth prospects remain volume led.

Health and convenience challenge economic gloom

The twin added value propositions of health and convenience – at relatively affordable prices – will remain key growth drivers across Western Europe.

Private label continues to erode retail value prospects

Continued private label encroachment will drive retail volume gains over value sales. However, considerable opportunities remain for branded producers.

Significant demographic constraints facing Western European food market

Alongside market maturity and private label encroachment, demographic factors including increasing obesity and falling birth rates will hinder prospects. At the same time, these realities also represent ways to add value to food.

Meal solutions, snacks can still thrive if Greece defaults

A Greek default could improve retail volume prospects for several food segments, as consumers trade down from fresh food and foodservice.

Room for food staples and non-essentials to grow even if Greece defaults

Chilled and frozen processed food, as well as sauces, could leverage recession-driven changes in consumer behaviour to their benefit. Snack food could also benefit as those in employment work longer hours.

What this report includes

Up-to-the minute analysis of the latest trends in the industry
New product development, forecasts and other themes
Unique graphics and illustrated case studies
Most recent brand and company news
New insight into the size and shape of the market

Why buy this report

Clear, concise powerpoint format makes it easy to digest
Leading industry opinion keeps you abreast of latest news and trends
Forward-looking outlook on a category, market or issue affecting the industry
Latest five year forecasts assess how the market is predicted to develop
Understand the competitive environment, the leading players and brands

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Introduction

Scope

Objectives of global briefing

The spectre of sovereign debt default in Greece

Impact on fast moving consumer goods

Methodology for restating packaged food retail volume forecasts

Key findings

Lessons From Past Crises

Recession not necessarily bad news for packaged food retail sales

Health, comfort, cocooning key trends for crisis management

Sustained growth depends on giving consumers what they need

Western Europe Packaged Food Retail Outlook

Snacking sustains sales despite continued economic uncertainty

Health and convenience continue to challenge economic gloom

Maturing consumer demand still constraining retail performance

Private label encroachment also eating into regional value growth

Demographic realities create both challenges and opportunities

EU birth rates declining steadily as economic uncertainty persists

Focus on Germany

Health, convenience and price drive German consumer demand

Best performing categories for German packaged food

Snacking will remain a priority for German consumers

Consumer foodservice should bear brunt of further economic slump

No comparison with 2009 even if Greece does default

Meal solutions thrive on the back of deteriorating economy

Orderly Grexit scenario: Re-stating forecasts in Germany

Ethnic, v egetarian ready meals offer potential for retail expansion

Tapping further into nostalgia and home cooking trends

Focus on France

French consumers will continue to prioritise health, convenience

Healthy eating will manifest itself in various ways

Unemployment to rise in event of Grexit-led economic contraction

Effects of Grexit could be felt in France during 2013

Meal solutions and treats could benefit from tighter budgets

Orderly Grexit scenario: Re-stating forecasts in France

Cooking and table sauces well positioned if recession returns

Product differentiation will be key to success in case of Grexit

Focus on Spain

Mounting price sensitivity drives packaged food retail volumes

Snack bars, ready meals and chilled food projected to grow

VAT rises taking their toll on Spanish economic prospects

Chilled and frozen processed food, sauces could still thrive in crisis

Orderly Grexit scenario: Re-stating forecasts in Spain

Leveraging health and wellness to support volume and value sales

Making the most of provenance in frozen processed food

Spain can show the way for added value milk formula brands

Final Conclusions

Meal solutions and snacks can still thrive if Greece defaults

Private label to be main beneficiary of Grexit-led recession

Private label stands to make biggest gains in peripheral economies

Consumers still want premium food, if it’s good value for money

How can brands fight back? Lessons from frozen processed food

How can brands fight back? Lessons from chilled processed food

Growth opportunities for branded milk formula if Greece defaults

Fresh, healthy and indulgent product formats stand to win it all

Appendix: Economic Indicators

Understanding EU debt exposure to Greece: First bailout package

Second Greek bailout agreed in October 2011

Total EU exposure resulting from two Greek bailouts

Further Euro-Zone exposure to Greek sovereign debt crisis

Total exposure to Greek sovereign debt

Spanish debt crisis: Private households run out of liquidity

Spanish bond yields soar after Bankia intervention

Impact of Grexit contagion might aggravate Spanish recession

Italy’s economic outlook: Austerity eating into growth prospects

Italian debt downgrade compromises future ability to borrow

Report Definitions

Report terminology

Report terminology (continued)

Product category definitions

Retail distribution definitions

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Packaged Food Forecast Revisit For Western Europe: Preparing For “Grexit”

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Past economic crises have limited impact on packaged food retail performance

Both staple items and non-essential indulgences can weather recession

Western Europe retail food market should hold firm

Health and convenience challenge economic gloom

Private label continues to erode retail value prospects

Significant demographic constraints facing Western European food market

Meal solutions, snacks can still thrive if Greece defaults

Room for food staples and non-essentials to grow even if Greece defaults

What this report includes

Why buy this report

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Introduction

Scope

Objectives of global briefing

The spectre of sovereign debt default in Greece

Impact on fast moving consumer goods

Methodology for restating packaged food retail volume forecasts

Key findings

Lessons From Past Crises

Recession not necessarily bad news for packaged food retail sales

Health, comfort, cocooning key trends for crisis management

Sustained growth depends on giving consumers what they need

Western Europe Packaged Food Retail Outlook

Snacking sustains sales despite continued economic uncertainty

Health and convenience continue to challenge economic gloom

Maturing consumer demand still constraining retail performance

Private label encroachment also eating into regional value growth

Demographic realities create both challenges and opportunities

EU birth rates declining steadily as economic uncertainty persists

Focus on Germany

Health, convenience and price drive German consumer demand

Best performing categories for German packaged food

Snacking will remain a priority for German consumers

Consumer foodservice should bear brunt of further economic slump

No comparison with 2009 even if Greece does default

Meal solutions thrive on the back of deteriorating economy

Orderly Grexit scenario: Re-stating forecasts in Germany

Ethnic, v egetarian ready meals offer potential for retail expansion

Tapping further into nostalgia and home cooking trends

Focus on France

French consumers will continue to prioritise health, convenience

Healthy eating will manifest itself in various ways

Unemployment to rise in event of Grexit-led economic contraction

Effects of Grexit could be felt in France during 2013

Meal solutions and treats could benefit from tighter budgets

Orderly Grexit scenario: Re-stating forecasts in France

Cooking and table sauces well positioned if recession returns

Product differentiation will be key to success in case of Grexit

Focus on Spain

Mounting price sensitivity drives packaged food retail volumes

Snack bars, ready meals and chilled food projected to grow

VAT rises taking their toll on Spanish economic prospects

Chilled and frozen processed food, sauces could still thrive in crisis

Orderly Grexit scenario: Re-stating forecasts in Spain

Leveraging health and wellness to support volume and value sales

Making the most of provenance in frozen processed food

Spain can show the way for added value milk formula brands

Final Conclusions

Meal solutions and snacks can still thrive if Greece defaults

Private label to be main beneficiary of Grexit-led recession

Private label stands to make biggest gains in peripheral economies

Consumers still want premium food, if it’s good value for money

How can brands fight back? Lessons from frozen processed food

How can brands fight back? Lessons from chilled processed food

Growth opportunities for branded milk formula if Greece defaults

Fresh, healthy and indulgent product formats stand to win it all

Appendix: Economic Indicators

Understanding EU debt exposure to Greece: First bailout package

Second Greek bailout agreed in October 2011

Total EU exposure resulting from two Greek bailouts

Further Euro-Zone exposure to Greek sovereign debt crisis