With GDP forecasts for 2018 revised upwards in most developed markets, notably Germany and the US, packaged food sales see an upgrade globally. Among emerging markets, Brazil sees a strong upgrade benefiting from a firmer economic recovery. However, many of the largest packaged food players are seeing stagnating sales in developed markets as they are losing share to niche brands with a natural and healthier positioning, and are under increased pressure to change their category focus.
Stronger than expected growth at theend of 2017 and passage of theRepublicans’ long-awaited tax cuts haveled us to raise US GDP growth forecast to2.3% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019.
The Eurozone economy outperformed in2017 with private sector optimism closeto levels of the early 2000s. GDP growthwill remain significantly above the trend,reaching 2.2% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019.
Brexit uncertainty is expected to weighon investments, while low income growthand consumer confidence should depressspending growth. UK GDP is forecast togrow by 1.4% in 2018 and 1.3% in 2019.
Economic growth in Japan is backed byrobust investment and export demand.However, wage growth remains weakhindering spending. We expect GDP togrow by 1.2% in 2018 and 0.9% in 2019.
Strong public investment, robustconsumption growth and improvingforeign demand support growth in China.We have lifted real GDP growth forecastto 6.5% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019.
Low inflation and interest rates, alongwith falling unemployment, supportconsumer spending in Brazil. GDP growthhas finally turned positive, and is likely toreach 2.4% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.
Russia’s economic rebound has turnedsofter than expected, despite the steadyincrease in oil prices. Real GDP growthforecast has been downgraded to 1.3% in2018 and 1.7% in 2019.
India’s economy has started to lift upfrom the joint disruption ofdemonetisation and GST reforms. Furtherstrengthening is likely with GDP growthof 7.4% in 2018 and 7.5% in 2019.
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