Most developed economies, notably in the Eurozone and the US, have seen GDP forecasts revised up, contributing to an upgrade in the packaged food forecasts globally. However, packaged food sales may be negatively impacted in China and Mexico under a Trump trade war scenario. Among large emerging markets, India and Nigeria are seeing major manufacturers adopting ambitious expansion strategies, notably in breakfast cereals, by targeting low income consumers and offering more nutritious food.
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We have lifted the US real GDP growth forecast to 2.4-2.5% over 2018-2019.Growth was stronger than expected in the recent quarters, thanks to the positive impact of tax cuts on investment.
Eurozone growth has slowed since the end of 2017, but remained solid at 2.5%in Q1 2018. Private sentiment also remains high. Real GDP is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2018, and 1.9% in 2019.
Brexit has taken a toll on the UK economy. Real GDP growth slowed down to 1.2% in Q1 2018 – the lowest growth since 2012. Our real GDP growth forecast is 1.3-1.4% over 2018-2019.
The growth momentum in Japan receded somewhat in Q4 2017, although the economy is still on the recovery track. We see real GDP growing by 1.4% in 2018 and 1.0% in 2019.
China’s economy keeps beating the slowdown concerns thanks to strong private consumption and investment. Demand will ebb, though, bringing GDP growth to 6.5% in 2018 and 6.3% in2019.
Brazil’s real GDP picked up pace at the end of 2017, boosted by rising consumption, low inflation and interest rates. We kept the real GDP growth forecast at 2.4-2.5% over 2018-2019.
In Q1 2018, the Russian economy benefited from the rising oil price and positive dynamics of consumer demand. We have lifted our real GDP growth forecast to 1.6-1.7% over 2018-2019.
The recovery of the Indian economy from recent policy disruptions continues to gain traction. Our baseline forecast remains upbeat, with real GDP growth at 7.4-7.5% over 2018-2019.