Packaged Food: Quarterly Statement Q2 2018

Strategy Briefing

About This Report

Jun 2018

Most developed economies, notably in the Eurozone and the US, have seen GDP forecasts revised up, contributing to an upgrade in the packaged food forecasts globally. However, packaged food sales may be negatively impacted in China and Mexico under a Trump trade war scenario. Among large emerging markets, India and Nigeria are seeing major manufacturers adopting ambitious expansion strategies, notably in breakfast cereals, by targeting low income consumers and offering more nutritious food.

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Packaged Food: Quarterly Statement Q2 2018

GDP Growth Highlights

The US

We have lifted the US real GDP growth forecast to 2.4-2.5% over 2018-2019.Growth was stronger than expected in the recent quarters, thanks to the positive impact of tax cuts on investment.

Eurozone

Eurozone growth has slowed since the end of 2017, but remained solid at 2.5%in Q1 2018. Private sentiment also remains high. Real GDP is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2018, and 1.9% in 2019.

The UK

Brexit has taken a toll on the UK economy. Real GDP growth slowed down to 1.2% in Q1 2018 – the lowest growth since 2012. Our real GDP growth forecast is 1.3-1.4% over 2018-2019.

Japan

The growth momentum in Japan receded somewhat in Q4 2017, although the economy is still on the recovery track. We see real GDP growing by 1.4% in 2018 and 1.0% in 2019.

China

China’s economy keeps beating the slowdown concerns thanks to strong private consumption and investment. Demand will ebb, though, bringing GDP growth to 6.5% in 2018 and 6.3% in2019.

Brazil

Brazil’s real GDP picked up pace at the end of 2017, boosted by rising consumption, low inflation and interest rates. We kept the real GDP growth forecast at 2.4-2.5% over 2018-2019.

Russia

In Q1 2018, the Russian economy benefited from the rising oil price and positive dynamics of consumer demand. We have lifted our real GDP growth forecast to 1.6-1.7% over 2018-2019.

India

The recovery of the Indian economy from recent policy disruptions continues to gain traction. Our baseline forecast remains upbeat, with real GDP growth at 7.4-7.5% over 2018-2019.

Scope
Executive summary
GDP forecasts: revisions over last quarter
Global risk scenarios
Major macro risks for the packaged food industry
Key findings

Forecast Update

Upgrade in packaged food predicted across most major global markets
Baby food and ready meals: Upgrades in challenging categories in the US
Upgrades in ready meals in China but baby food growth set to subside
Trump trade war scenario could hit key categories in China and Mexico
UK downgrade: No-deal Brexit may exacerbate packaged food stagnation
India upgrade: Breakfast cereals and key snacking categories to benefit
Global players expand in breakfast cereals in Nigeria despite downgrade

Strategies: Premiumisation and Affordability

Targeting niches in mature markets and low earners in emerging markets
Intersnack buys premium UK savoury snacks brand to grow in Germany
Premiumisation in snacking categories and breakfast cereals in India
Kellogg and Nestlé offer affordable and more nutritious food in Nigeria
Kellogg targets India and West Africa to recover in breakfast cereals
Key global players seeks to combine low unit prices and premiumisation

About Our Industry Forecast Models

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model
Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model
Key applications for Industry Forecast Models