Packaged Food Quarterly Statement Q3 2021

September 2021

This briefing examines Euromonitor International's Q3 2021 packaged food forecasts, which have been updated in accordance with macroeconomic changes and the latest information. The top line forecast has remained mostly in line with Q2's update, with stable demand observed for necessities such as cooking ingredients and staples on the back of continued meal occasions at home. Healthy living trends continue to drive innovation amidst the pandemic, as consumers and businesses alike seek to adapt to

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Key findings

Stability in packaged food demand observed in Q3

Euromonitor’s forecast projection for overall packaged food has remained mostly in line with Q2 expectations. Q3 marked the resurgence of COVID-19 through new variants (such as the Delta variant) and many consumers globally have become accustomed to changes such as  increased meal occasions at home. Demand for necessities such as cooking ingredients, meals and staple foods remained stable, whereas other categories such as snacks saw an uptick in demand for 2021 as a result of home seclusion and recovering purchasing power.

Product familiarity and convenience drive consumption

The sustained trend towards home-based consumption, combined with uncertain, albeit, recovering economic headwinds, has led to consumers’ continued focus on brands that they are familiar with. Premiumisation has continued to take a backseat in Q3 2021. This new way of life, ie more working from home, reduced footfall, etc, has also increased the need for products that offer convenience. Nonetheless, the higher rate of vaccinations globally has led to some resumption of normality in Q3, providing relief to categories related to consumer mobility.

Continuation of healthy living trends through functional food

Gut health interest increases among consumers and producers are developing new products with additional functions such as probiotic strains that aid with eye health, blood lipid level, etc. Functional foods aimed at healthy ageing and mental wellbeing are a focus of innovations amidst the ongoing pandemic. This focus on health has led to slower growth in milk formula, as breastfeeding awareness grows globally.

Businesses under pressure to adapt and deliver

Efficient business processes have been developed as a result of the need to stay ahead in the 21st century. Conversely, hyper-efficiency has also led to increased susceptibility to disruption, as highlighted by the pandemic. As businesses adjust to the new normal, including consumer outreach in the context of home seclusion, they need to focus on the current demands of the consumer while ensuring that they remain relevant and profitable.

Introduction

Scope
Key findings

Q3 2021 Packaged Food Update

Packaged food Q3 update: Methodology
Consumers in the US balancing social distancing versus socialising
Foodservice recovery progress in 2021
Downwards revisions in markets with delayed economic reopening
Snacking habits show larger-than-expected positive uptick for Q3
Cooking ingredients demand still bolstered by home cooking
Sustained meal occasions at home boost demand for breakfasts
Health concerns and free-from dairy provide growth…
…while baby food’s forecast trajectory has been lowered significantly
Supply shortages expose cost of disruption
Probiotics strains developed to support beyond gut health
Functionality and better-for-you products in demand amidst virus concerns
Plant-based innovations go beyond traditional product formats
Sustainability efforts pushed through packaging and emission reductions
Packaged food overview in a nutshell
Long-term discussion of key drivers

Q3 2021 Macroeconomic Update

Strong global economic recovery underway
Downside risk factors remain significant
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter, AE
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter, EMDE

About Our Industry Forecast Model

About Euromonitor International’s Macro Model
Euromonitor International and COVID-19: Forecasts and analysis
Industry Forecast Model : Hard versus soft drivers
Packaged food data and reporting timeline
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