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Brexit

Quarterly Brexit Report: Q2 2018

Jun 2018

US$1,325

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About This Report

New Report Guarantee

If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE!

In 2016, the United Kingdom (UK) voted to leave the European Union (EU), an unprecedented step by a member state. Although a transition deal was agreed in March 2018, the UK has not clarified exactly what future relations it seeks and time is running out. Euromonitor International’s Analytics models contain a range of Brexit scenarios, to help you stay up-to-date on developments and understand the impact on UK consumer goods industries, the economy, and consumers.

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Overview

Why buy this report?

Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.

Light Brexit will benefit Alcoholic Drinks exports

The category benefiting the most would be spirits, as exports of scotch and English gin to the EU would be able to continue uninterrupted.

More middle-income households in Liverpool in a Light Brexit

A Light Brexit scenario would help reinvigorate consumer spending in Liverpool, which over 2012-2017 struggled – growing by 4.4% in real terms –the lowest of any UK city analysed by Passport Cities.

No-Deal Brexit will slow consumer spending

The UK’s total consumer expenditure is set to rise by only 4.9% in real terms during 2017-2022 in a No-Deal Brexit, down from the 7.1% baseline real growth forecast amid greater economic uncertainty, less investment, lower employment, and weak real income gains.

No-Deal Brexit will be a loss to the UK economy

Real GDP growth would contract by 2.7 percentage points over 2019-2022relative to the baseline, as a result of the uncertainty and deprivation of single market benefits.

Danone Group’s milk alternatives at risk in Brexit

The high income elasticity of milk alternatives puts it at risk in the Brexit environment. The movement from dairy to more expensive milk alternatives has been gathering pace but the slowdown in the economy could potentially disrupt that.

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Introduction

Scope

Key events so far: customs partnership or max fac?

Future developments to watch

The road ahead: time is running out for the UK

Key findings

Brexit scenarios defined

UK Economic Outlook and Baseline

UK economic baseline

Labour and private sentiment

Inflation and monetary policy

Latest data: economic performance weakens, inflation declines

Impact on Consumer Markets

Packaged Food: risk of higher food prices in the event of a No-Deal

Beauty and Personal Care: industry remains resilient

Soft Drinks: British water producers at risk of losing export rights

Hot Drinks: is the UK losing its position as an EU tea trade hub?

Home Care: No-Deal Brexit to impact Toilet Care most severely

Tissue and Hygiene: an increasingly competitive retail environment

Alcoholic Drinks: geographic designation protection at risk

Travel: Brexit will impact airline industry’s corporate governance

Impact on Companies

Brexit and its impact on FMCG companies

Spotlight on Danone Group: Brexit impact

Spotlight on Danone Group: UK sales by category

Spotlight on Danone Group: milk alternatives at risk

Light Brexit Scenario

Economy: Light Brexit would lift the uncertainty for UK business

Consumers: high-income households to drive consumer spending

Cities: Birmingham shows swift rise in top segment households

Spotlight on Liverpool: more middle-income households

Packaged Food: Light Brexit would help ingredients imports

Beauty and Personal Care: men’s grooming benefits in Light Brexit

Soft Drinks: Bottled Water to gain most in actual volume terms

Hot Drinks: Black Tea to profit most from Light Brexit

Home Care: a less likely Light Brexit would benefit Toilet Care

Tissue and Hygiene: Nappies/Diapers/Pants to profit most

Alcoholic Drinks: Light Brexit would allow trade to flow

Travel Arrivals: moderate boost to inbound receipts

Travel Departures: Intercontinental given the strongest boost

No-Deal Brexit Scenario

Economy: No-Deal Brexit threatens high economic costs for the UK

Consumers: top segment’s spending growth to slow down the most

Cities: London sees largest drop in top and mid-income households

Spotlight on Liverpool: households falling down the income ladder

Packaged Food: No-Deal Brexit set to disrupt premiumisation shift

Beauty and Personal Care: mass is the most resilient

Soft Drinks: concentrates to remain the most resilient

Hot Drinks: Fresh Ground Coffee Pods to be hit hardest

Home Care: rising unit price to impact entire segment

Tissue and Hygiene: Nappies/Diapers/Pants hit hardest

Alcoholic Drinks: A No-Deal Brexit would slow volume sales further

Travel Arrivals: only a minor boost to be expected in a No-Deal

Travel Departures: will feel the strongest impact from a No-Deal

Conclusion

Key insights: Light Brexit

Key insights: No-Deal Brexit

Scope and objectives

Definitions

Brexit scenarios defined

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Megatrends

Brexit

Quarterly Brexit Report: Q2 2018

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Light Brexit will benefit Alcoholic Drinks exports

More middle-income households in Liverpool in a Light Brexit

No-Deal Brexit will slow consumer spending

No-Deal Brexit will be a loss to the UK economy

Danone Group’s milk alternatives at risk in Brexit

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Introduction

Scope

Key events so far: customs partnership or max fac?

Future developments to watch

The road ahead: time is running out for the UK

Key findings

Brexit scenarios defined

UK Economic Outlook and Baseline

UK economic baseline

Labour and private sentiment

Inflation and monetary policy

Latest data: economic performance weakens, inflation declines

Impact on Consumer Markets

Packaged Food: risk of higher food prices in the event of a No-Deal

Beauty and Personal Care: industry remains resilient

Soft Drinks: British water producers at risk of losing export rights

Hot Drinks: is the UK losing its position as an EU tea trade hub?

Home Care: No-Deal Brexit to impact Toilet Care most severely

Tissue and Hygiene: an increasingly competitive retail environment

Alcoholic Drinks: geographic designation protection at risk

Travel: Brexit will impact airline industry’s corporate governance

Impact on Companies

Brexit and its impact on FMCG companies

Spotlight on Danone Group: Brexit impact

Spotlight on Danone Group: UK sales by category

Spotlight on Danone Group: milk alternatives at risk

Light Brexit Scenario

Economy: Light Brexit would lift the uncertainty for UK business

Consumers: high-income households to drive consumer spending

Cities: Birmingham shows swift rise in top segment households

Spotlight on Liverpool: more middle-income households

Packaged Food: Light Brexit would help ingredients imports

Beauty and Personal Care: men’s grooming benefits in Light Brexit

Soft Drinks: Bottled Water to gain most in actual volume terms

Hot Drinks: Black Tea to profit most from Light Brexit

Home Care: a less likely Light Brexit would benefit Toilet Care

Tissue and Hygiene: Nappies/Diapers/Pants to profit most

Alcoholic Drinks: Light Brexit would allow trade to flow

Travel Arrivals: moderate boost to inbound receipts

Travel Departures: Intercontinental given the strongest boost

No-Deal Brexit Scenario

Economy: No-Deal Brexit threatens high economic costs for the UK

Consumers: top segment’s spending growth to slow down the most

Cities: London sees largest drop in top and mid-income households

Spotlight on Liverpool: households falling down the income ladder

Packaged Food: No-Deal Brexit set to disrupt premiumisation shift

Beauty and Personal Care: mass is the most resilient

Soft Drinks: concentrates to remain the most resilient

Hot Drinks: Fresh Ground Coffee Pods to be hit hardest

Home Care: rising unit price to impact entire segment

Tissue and Hygiene: Nappies/Diapers/Pants hit hardest

Alcoholic Drinks: A No-Deal Brexit would slow volume sales further

Travel Arrivals: only a minor boost to be expected in a No-Deal

Travel Departures: will feel the strongest impact from a No-Deal

Conclusion

Key insights: Light Brexit

Key insights: No-Deal Brexit

Scope and objectives

Definitions

Brexit scenarios defined

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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