The most influential Megatrends set to shape the world through 2030, identified by Euromonitor International, help businesses better anticipate market developments and lead change for their industries.
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In 2016, the UK voted to leave the EU, an unprecedented step by a member state. The UK economy has undergone huge uncertainty, from when to trigger Article 50, to the hung parliament following snap elections, nearly a year after the referendum. Euromonitor’s Analytics models contain a range of Brexit scenarios. This report will help you to stay up-to-date on developments and understand the impact on UK consumer goods industries, the economy, and consumers through a range of macro scenarios.
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Despite adoption by the UK of a softer negotiations stance, the UK and the EU fail to reach a final deal by the March 2019 Article 50 deadline. In the interim, the EU and the UK agree to continue the UK’s membership in the EU for up to two-three more years. A final Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is reached in 2020-2022.
Under pressure from more pro-EU factions in parliament and growing concerns over the costs of a hard Brexit, the British government softens its negotiating positions on immigration control. The EU agrees to some UK restrictions on immigration from Eastern Europe for a few more years, while preserving all rights of existing EU citizens in the UK and eventual restoration of free movement from the EU to the UK. This allows for a compromise, in which the UK retains access to the common market and financial sector passport rights. UK citizens also retain full EU movement and immigration rights.
A Light Brexit would benefit the top consumer segment in the UK the most, amid an improved outlook for the financial sector and stock markets. Personal wealth will expand and Social Class A (the richest social class) will increase by 200,000 adults by 2021.
A Light Brexit would result in 645,000 less potential tourists arriving to the UK in 2019. With a more pro-European trade outlook, the pound would rally and relative exchange rates would push up the cost of visiting the UK.
Negotiations between the EU and the UK break down, and the UK leaves the EU in 2019 without reaching a trade agreement. Trade relations with the EU default to World Trade Organization (WTO) conditions. Heightened uncertainty and lower labour productivity lead to a long-term decline in UK real GDP of around 3.0% relative to the baseline forecast.
A No-Deal Brexit would have a negative impact on the UK economy, as the country would leave the EU and revert to World Trade Organization (WTO) conditions. Annual real GDP growth in the UK would fall to just 0.4% in 2019, the lowest in a decade.
A No-Deal Brexit would result in an expansion of London’s bottom consumer segment, as the top and middle contract. This would result in 57,900 more households in the bottom in 2019 from a year earlier, increasing the risk of poverty in the city.
Unilever Group will be amongst the companies hardest hit by Brexit and will lose an estimated US$1.5 billion in 2019.
Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.